Sports Stock Radio

Hey readers, just finished my first draft of the season and I thought I’d post it for you all to see. Not too much analysis in this post… but just understand that if I picked someone, I liked their potential A LOT.

QB: Matt Ryan ATL

WR: Calvin Johnson DET

WR: Greg Jennings GB

RB: Willis McGahee DEN

RB: Mark Ingram NO

TE: Jimmy Graham NO

DEF: 49ers

K: Matt Bryant ATL

FLEX: Jeremy Maclin PHI

BENCH: Andrew Luck IND, Pierre Garcon WAS, Laurent Robinson JAC, Donald Brown IND, Jacob Tamme DEN, Packers DEF, Rob Bironas TEN.

To my readers, I first feel like I must apologize for the way I ended last season’s postings… I left you high-and-dry after Week 11 and simply dropped off the map. See, sometimes things come up that just bog you down and interfere with all of your best intentions. Last year, I decided that I was going to do a semester abroad… and not just any regular semester abroad, a semester with Semester At Sea, where I literally traveled around the world on a ship. And my preparations for this trip coincided with the last few weeks of the football season, and instead of finding time for my regular research and writing, I was instead swamped with college finals, shopping/packing, and making time to say adequate farewells to my friends and family… and so, Sports Stock Radio fell into the cracks.

But it’s a new season… I’m signed up for a slew of fantasy leagues, and I’m ready to take on the game along side all of you. I don’t quite have my research completely ready to post, but I plan on having at least one draft special report before the beginning of the season. After that I’ll be returning to a format that is pretty similar to what I did last season: A Monday article reflecting on the games of Sunday. A shorter mid-week report on Wednesday looking ahead to any Thursday games and reviewing any big league updates. And a big Saturday post where I’ll try and inform you on any new injuries to watch out for, I’ll give you my Buys and Sells of the week, AND I’ll be including my winners for each game of the weekend including special notes regarding strategy for anyone in a Survival Pick League.

So I hope you’re all excited for this season of NFL football, I know I am. I really love writing these articles, it gives me a really interesting creative outlet while still focusing on things I’m passionate about: professional sports and games. So any and all readers are greatly appreciated.

Stay tuned for my first post of the season which should be coming in the next week or so. I have my own first draft this afternoon with a couple more coming this weekend, so once I get through those I’ll start gathering strategic ideas and opinions to pass along here.

Again, thanks for sticking with me though this exceptionally extended off-season… I’m very happy to say that his has been Sports Stock Radio.

We’re getting down to it folks! Play-offs are only 1 about a month away, and depending on your type of league, you could have only a few more match-ups left in order to get yourself into the post-season picture. What does this mean? It means you really need to work free agency if any holes in your line-ups still exist, and you need to look at who your backups are in case you have any number of certain players.

For example:

• Aaron Rodgers is a double edged sword. For 14 weeks he’s going to be your absolute best friend. But if the Packers remain undefeated, or even something like 13-1… they’re going to have the division locked up, and are going to catch the Peyton Manning syndrome. There is no way in hell (especially if they manage to lose one game and are no longer worrying about going undefeated) that Green Bay management is going to let Rodgers play in those last few regular season games. So then what is a fantasy owner to do? Your best player is going to be inactive when you need him most. I say, trade him! Yes, I know… it’s almost blasphemous to suggest, but the trade deadline is still about a week off in some leagues, and if you put Rodgers on the block, you can get pretty much anything you want. In particular, players who will still be battling come week 15, 16, 17. Players like Brees, Newton, Manning, Rivers, Romo, Ryan… those first three names have yet to drop below double digit fantasy points ALL SEASON. And the last three you could probably get as part of a two player deal. Rodgers for Rivers AND___. Rodgers for Romo AND ___. For Ryan AND___. All of these names are just about as safe as Rodgers, and they’re not going to mail it in come December.
• Brady is the one other big name QB who I didn’t include on that list, because I think there’s the chance that he might also earn a rest week late in the season. Granted, the Jets are only 1 game back, but they lost both of the regular season match ups, so it’s unlikely that they’ll overtake the Pats for the division. The only other team that could have a shot is the Bills, who have already beaten the Patriots once this year, and who they’re going to be playing week 17. Now, some leagues have a play off game week 17, some do not. So just be aware of your rules, and what’s going on in the league. If the Pats and Bills are still very close come the end of the season, look for Brady to be an option in your championship hopes. If for some reason the Bills begin to drop off (which is possible after their poor showing against the Jets two weeks ago) then you might need to look elsewhere.
• The 49ers are also a team who are running away with their division. I mean, at this point, it’s really all but clinched. Now San Francisco is winning games primarily with their stingy defense, and because of this they don’t really have a huge helping of fantasy players… but RB Frank Gore might be someone you’ll want to watch out for with possible rest weeks. Alex Smith is a guy who’s at the low end of good QB’s, about in the Fitzpatrick/Freeman/Dalton range… so if he’s your guy I would continue to expect about what you’ve been getting so far: average performances, but still getting into double digits pretty often.

And that brings us to Thursday Night… This week will feature a match up between the Jets and the Broncos… and two QB’s who their coaches hate. I kid. But a lot has been made this week in the media about a few quotes by Rex Ryan and John Fox about their respective quarterbacks; Rex essentially calling his stupid, and Fox saying his isn’t fit to run an NFL offense. Yet somehow, both teams are finding ways to win. The Jets only stand 1 game behind the Pats, and Timmy Terrific has won all but 1 start this season. However, I think this might very well be the week where things begin to go south for which ever team loses. If the Jets lose, I think the whole team has a shot at imploding. Rex has been all over Mark Sanchez (and really the rest of his team) for not being the team he predicted they would be in the preseason. And should they lose this game against the Broncos… look for some drama. As for Timmy Terrific, if he loses this week, it will surely be because teams are finally getting enough tape on what he’s doing in the Option Offense, and now able to stop it. If there’s one thing to be said about Rex Ryan, it’s that he knows how to set up a defense. And with the all-star corners they have going for them, look for the passing game to be all but non-existent for the Broncos (again), allowing the Jets to really hone in on the run. I’m picking the Jets to win, but look for the Broncos to put up a nice fight.

This has been Sports Stock Radio and me, Jake. Thanks for reading.

Well readers… 9-7 isn’t too terrible. Which is where I should be after the Pack win tonight. This season has just been really unexplainable. I heard it on SportsScenter last night… the differences in teams from week to week is simply incredible. One week after what appeared to be a statement win over Pittsburgh, the Ravens come out and lose to the Seahawks. Two weeks after a HUGE win over Dallas, the Eagles get beat by a Cardnials team with a QB by the name of Skelton… AND even though I did predict the 49ers over the Giants, I think that’s still somewhat of a surprise win for most people. I’m riffing this idea off of the headline story on NFL.com today, which is the surprising fact that all 4 NFC West (or Worst) teams won this past weekend. Of course that’s not all that happened… The Pats took down the surging Jets, The Saints unfortunately beat the Falcons in OT, and Carolina only managed to put up 3 points against the Titans (the same Titans who have given up 16 to Jacksonville, 38 to Pitt, 41 to the Texans and 24 to the Bengals).

As for my Quarterbacks post that I did a few days back, my predictions turned out ok. Tebow and Palmer both went for double digits this week, and both won their respective match-ups. Tebow put up about 100 total yards, and 1 passing and rushing TD against the Chiefs (who, may I remind you, defeated the Chargers on Halloween pretty handily). And Carson threw for about 300 yards, 2 TD’s an a pick. And as a side note, when you look at those numbers and think who had the better fantasy game, you’d surely be thinking Palmer… but that would be incorrect. Tebow got 1 more point than him on both ESPN and Yahoo! Which I think goes to show again, how much value a running QB has, even if he’s not great in real life terms. I also talked about the rookies, Gabbert and Ponder. Gabbert had a pretty pedestrian game this week: 8.5 points on Yahoo!, 6 on ESPN. This though is especially disappointing in a way similar to the Chris Johnson a couple weeks back… look, Indianapolis is BAD. If you have a fantasy player going against Indy, the rule of thumb is START him. But in these two instances, Gabbert and CJ, two questionable guys have proved a lot to me in a loss. If you can’t get it done against the Colts this year, who are you going to get it done against? Ponder is yet to play, finding Green Bay in the game tonight. The general idea is that his numbers should be down against a Defense like that of the Packers… but don’t forget that it was those same Packers who gave the struggling Philip Rivers his best fantasy game of the season. In fact, ESPN has the Packers ranked 28th in the league against opposing QB’s, having only 1 game all season where they held them to less than double digits. I’m not saying Ponder is going to have a break out game, I don’t even think the Vikings are going to win… But like I said before, there is a small bit of value in him during crunch time situations.

Now, that last topic already got into tonight’s game a little bit, but let me finish up with the rest of the players that should be featured tonight. For the Vikings, the only other real fantasy impact player is, of course, Adrian Peterson. AP has always been on that short list of fantasy players where the biggest question about him… is whether you should take him as the first pick in the draft. He’s been a producer week in and week out for years now. Overall, he’s 3rd in ESPN’s RBs but that should change after tonight’s game needing only 15 points to take over the #1 spot. The thing with Peterson, is that he’s a work-horse. He gets those tough yards, and is an incredibly valuable asset to middle of the road QB’s like the Vikings have had the last few seasons. This is great to fantasy owners because it simply means that he gets the ball a lot. For the Packers, what more is there to say about Aaron Rodgers? He’s having an incredible season this year, one of the best I’ve ever seen. I was able to watch him in detail two weeks ago against the Chargers… and some of the throws he was making, were simply incredible. It’s interesting because on Yahoo! Brees is actually beating him for the top spot by 1 point (which will surely be overtaken after tonight) but on ESPN Rodgers is blowing Brees away, and will probably have around a 60 point lead after tonight. One thing I do want to mention about the Packers offense though is something that I think about a few offenses out there today… and that is that they tend to spread the ball around too much for my fantasy taste. Yes, this is great for real world results… but in fantasy, unless you draft Rodgers who is at the helm of all of the plays (or Kicker Mason Crosby who is kicking out of his shoes with all their scoring), the question of who else to take (or start on any given week) is a bit of a difficult one. Greg Jennings is the safest bet, who is going for double digits nearly every week… but their next best receiver, Jordy Nelson,is only averaging 10.5 points with plenty of stinkers to go around. Their best running back, James Starks, is behind Chris Johnson in fantasy points this year. If it weren’t for a 26 point game against the Bears, TE Jermichael Finley would be the epitome of average. And their “lock down defense” is only 8th in the league behind the likes of the Bengals, Texans, and 49ers.

Granted a few of these ranks will go up after getting some points tonight, but there have always been those offense who spread the ball around too much for my liking… The Packers, Saints, Patriots, Chargers, Eagles (and the Bengals, Cowboys, Giants and Jets to lesser degrees) are all good examples for this. And what do these teams have in common (except maybe the Bengals and Jets)? They all have amazing fantasy QBs: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Romo, and Manning. Why is this? Because they hog all of the teams points. Even though they might get the ball to 7 different receivers in a game, they’re still the ones throwing all of the passes, and other than themselves, it makes it difficult for fantasy owners to figure out who might have a big week in any given game. So with all of that said, I obviously love Aaron Rodgers, and if you have him on one of your fantasy teams this season, then you’re probably loving life right now. But as far as the rest of the Packers go, I’m a bit hesitant to make them weekly starters. Proceed with caution readers.

This has been Sports Stock Radio. I am of course Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker… and I am picking the Pack tonight over the Vikings.

I’ve been on family vacation this weekend, in celebration of Veterans Day. So let me take this opportunity to give an enormous thank you to all of our nation’s soldiers past, present, and future. Personally, I’m not a fan of all of our wars, but I have the utmost respect for those who fight in them, and those who give the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms at home.

With that said, there’s 10 minutes til kickoff, so here are my picks of the week:

• Atlanta over New Orleans at home
• Pittsburgh to use home field advantage to stop the surging Bengals
• Rams over the Browns
• Bills to prove they’re for real over Dallas
• Jags over the Colts
• The Denver Tebows over the Chiefs
• Dolphins to get another win over the Redskins
• Eagles over the Cardinals
• Texans over the Bucs
• Carolina over Tennessee
• Baltimore easily over the Seahawks
• Lions over da Bears
• 49ers over the Giants
• Jets over New England
• Packers over the Vikings

Lots of tough picks this week reader, there are honestly about 6 that I could go either way on. So we’ll see what happens.

So who’s excited for the second Thursday Night game of the season? Ya, it shouldn’t exactly be as entertaining as that 42-38 Packers v Saints game to start off the year… but you know that as a Charger fan, I’m rooting for my Bolts to finally put it together. But there are a couple other things I want to talk about before we get to that.

When thinking about a topic for today, I realized that I haven’t really talked about one of the biggest stories of the whole season so far, Timmy Terrific. I’ve picked a few of his games, but I haven’t discussed his real impact on the NFL and Fantasy Football. So I thought I’d take today and talk about Tebow, along with 3 or 4 other new QB’s that have entered the league mid-season and what, if any, fantasy value they have.

• TIM TEBOW: After entering the league week 5, Tebow has had 4 games (with one week off on bye) with double digit fantasy points, including his half game against the Chargers. Let me just say what I feel about running QB’s before hitting Tebow specifically… The thing about them is that they are the epitome of players that have more fantasy than real life value. Now first you have to understand the difference between running, and mobile. Steve Young was mobile, Aaron Rodgers is mobile, Big Ben is a little mobile… but they are not RUNNING QB’s, most of their touchdowns are still based on passing. When you talk about running QB’s you bring up the names of Vick, Vince Young, Tim Tebow, and Cam Newton. Running QB’s have inherently more fantasy value because rushing TD’s are worth more fantasy points than passing TD’s. In most leagues, a passing TD is worth 4 points, and a Rushing/Receiving TD is worth 6. That means that a running QB is afforded the equivalent of 1 interception (-2 pts) for every rushing TD, while still being equal to a passing QB’s touchdowns. Put another way, in terms of yards… a rushing TD is worth 50 more passing yards (25 yards per point) than an actual passing TD. For example: If Tebow passes for 200 yards with 2 rushing TD’s… that would be EQUAL to Tom Brady passing for 300 yards with 2 passing TD’s, both very likely scenarios. The other thing, is that even if they don’t necessarily score while running, yard while running are worth more as well. In passing, it takes 25 yards to equal 1 fantasy point. But while running it takes only 10. And how many times do you see Vick or Tebow scramble for that rogue first down on 2nd and 10? That’s a point all day long, as opposed to about half a point when Brady throws for it. Now, to get to Tebow specifically. The way fantasy is set up, covers for a lot of Tebow’s flaws. He doesn’t pass a lot, but rushing yards count more. He throws interceptions, but as long as he gets his rushing TD’s it doesn’t matter. So let me just say that in real life, I wouldn’t want Tebow on my team, but he does have fantasy value. In every game (even the terrible one against the Lions) Timmy got his double digits. If nothing else, he is a great injury or bye week replacement. The word is BUY.
• CARSON PALMER: He had a nice game last week, at lease fantasy-wise. Yes, he threw 3 picks, and lost the game for the Raiders. But he also had 3 TD’s and threw for 330 yards. He doesn’t have the rushing cushion that Tebow has, so his mistakes get magnified. But remember that the Raiders have a lot of young talented skill position players: Denarious Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford at WR and Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at RB. So in that regard, ever since the trade was made, I’ve felt like Palmer had a real shot to be successful, and could make a real fantasy impact. At this point there’s really only 1 bad half, and 1 mediocre game to judge on… but you just have to look at Palmer’s body of work, as well as the pieces he has around him and go off of potential. Similar to Tebow, I don’t know that I would have him start on any of my fantasy teams (given that there aren’t any injury issues), but I wouldn’t say he’s as much of safe bet as the advantages of a running QB. There are two advantages that Palmer has over other backup QB’s, both have to do with the division he plays in. As an AFC West follower myself, I can tell you as well as anyone that practically every year it’s a tight race to see who makes the play-offs. This means that most QB’s will be playing all the way through 16 games, and putting up nice numbers during fantasy play off time (a topic I’ll cover in greater detail in the coming weeks). And secondly, following only the NFC West, the AFC West is arguably the weakest division. That means that Palmer will have to face tough teams less often, and will have more opportunities to shine against the less than potent Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs defenses. The word is a very small BUY for Palmer, but only if your options are limited.
• And lastly I want to talk about the two rookie QB’s that have been handed the starting jobs on their respective teams mid-season, and those are Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. I’m lumping them together because in a lot of ways I think their situations are very similar. They’re both on less than average teams (the Jags and Vikings respectively), they themselves are pretty nice budding QB talents, and they both have a solid run game backing them up. Gabbert is leading Ponder in overall fantasy points by around 10, though he has played 4 more games. Ponder has entered the double digit range twice in 3 games, where as Gabbert has only done so once in 7 games. Ponder has around a 50% completion percentage, and Gabbert is at about 45%. They’re both about equal in TD’s, INT’s, and Longest Plays… So, all in all these two players seem like they’re still just getting going in this league. I would probably take Ponder in a tight spot above Gabbert, but as far as this season goes I don’t know if they’re entirely worth the pick up. I would say the word on these two is STAY. “They are who we thought they were”, paraphrasing of course. They’re nice rookies who should have some nice seasons coming up.

And that brings us to Thursday night. Can I just say that the commercial that the NFL network has circulating has me more excited for the game, than the real potential of how it’s going to turn out. Have you seen it readers? The one with the surfer Charger fans, and punk skateboarding Raider fans riding into their homes to watch the game? I thought that was pretty cool. I wish I could find a link for you guys… but I just can’t seem to get it. Anyway, in reality the game is looking to be between two teams who are currently struggling a little bit, with first place in the AFC West on the line. The teams are both on a short rest/study week which is likely to hurt the Raiders more than the Chargers, seeing as how they’re still working on incorporating a new QB into their system. I’ve already talked a bit about the various Raiders skill players and their fantasy impacts, so lets briefly cover the Chargers a little bit. The popular topic with the Chargers this week is that Philip Rivers is seriously struggling. And as a Charger fan, I think the trouble goes a little deeper, possibly up to the level of the play calling ability of Norv Turner. But none of that really matters in the fantasy arena. As much as Rivers has been catching heat recently, he’s still putting up pretty nice fantasy numbers. He’s only had 2 single digit games, and is the 11th ranked fantasy QB. He’s an absolute starter in pretty much any line up unless you lucked out with picking someone like Stafford or Cam as a back up. In the run game, San Diego has the 13th and 17th ranked RB’s with Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert. Matthews is listed as probable for tomorrows game with a groin injury, though his time could very likely be split with Tolbert who tends to get goal line opportunities anyway. If I had to pick between the two, I’d probably go with Tolbert this week, but Matthews’ owners should be fine next week when Ryan gets a long week of rest after this Thursday game. I’ve already written a couple times about Antonio Gates… basically saying that I’m not a huge buyer with that nagging foot/leg injury that he’s been dealing with for some time now. He seems just as likely to get 0 points as he is to get 10-15. In the receiving core, the only real WR of value on the team is Vincent Jackson, who is the 6th ranked fantasy WR. The thing with Jackson though is that, like Gates, he seems just as likely to have a terrible game as a great one. He’s a little too unstable for me, but if you have him on your team, he’s probably worth the start.

For the game I’m picking the Chargers, I think the Raiders are still figuring things out, and Rivers and the rest of the team are likely going to come out with something to prove. I’ll get to the rest of my picks later in the week, but for now, that’s what I got.

This has been Sports Stock Radio. I am Jake your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading.

Well… it was a strange weekend for me readers. My fantasy projections panned out pretty well, but I couldn’t pick a game to save my life. On one hand, it makes for excellent television. Does anyone else out there have DirectTv? Isn’t it a beautiful thing readers? 8 channels of NFL on one screen where you can flip back and forth at will… Combine that with the apparent parity of the league this year, and it makes for some awesome Sundays. BUT, on the other hand, it’s making me look like a bit of a chump on this lovely blog here. I’ll learn readers, I will.

Here’s what I got right, and what I got wrong:

Right:

• Hasselbeck had a nice game this week, putting up 18 on the Bengals. I called him Friday my best value QB and he keeps putting up the numbers. He’s not Rogers getting 30 every week (relish these games folks, because he’s made the jump to an extremely special level), but he is getting double digits week in and week out, and he’s available. If you’re having troubles at QB, consider this guy. Great value selling low.
• Sproles went for 15 this week against the Bucs with a receiving TD and about 100 total yards. Like I mentioned before, the problem with RB’s at this point in the season is that all the good ones are owned. But you still might be able to find someone willing to part with Sproles as he’s only getting the start around 67% of the time. I checked the rules of the various leagues I’m playing in this year, and the trade deadline is coming up in the next couple weeks folks. So get your deals done before time runs out and you’re left to waivers.
• I finally got over my San Diego homer-ism, picking against them in the game against Green Bay. It was a lot closer than I thought though, and I give the Chargers credit for staying in the game as long as they did, some how managing to turn it into a good old fashioned shoot out. But like I mentioned, Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his shoes right now, and it’s going to take an incredibly special team to have any shot at beating him and the Packers.

WRONG:

• Well it was a relatively rough weekend for me here at Sports Stock. Let’s just get the pick stuff over with before we get to fantasy, because I think there’s a lot to be learned there.
• First of all, kudos to the Jets for winning a big statement game against the Bills. Going into this weekend the Jets were behind by a game in their division to both the Bills and Patriots, and a loss would have put them 2 back of Buffalo with the Pats coming up next week. But now with a win, they’re tied with the Bills, and have a shot to move into first place with a win over New England next week.
• Next there was Miami, playing themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes… Now, I don’t buy giving up games to get a draft pick. But if you watch ESPN everyone there, who are all much smarter and experienced in football than you and I, are saying that Luck is the closest thing to a can’t miss pick. So maybe Miami lets a few guys go, makes a few trades, tries a few new things… But with a win, it leaves only the Colts at 0-9. That should be an interesting storyline to watch as the second half of the season unfolds.
• Average is the word for the Raiders in their loss to the Broncos. Carson finally got a full game under his belt and had an AVERAGE performance. 3 TD’s with 3 INT’s. I still feel like he should be able to get it figured out as the season goes along, but for now, the Raiders are an AVERAGE 4-4.
• Eli lived up to his “elite” quote this week beating the increasingly pedestrian Patriots. They seem to be beatable by any team with a solid offense and at least middle of the road defense (something that there is plenty of in the league right now). The thing is that Brady is going to put up points against you, but their defense is air thin. If the other team ever gets out to a lead, the Pats are in trouble due to their virtual lack of a deep threat. Like many people at the World Wide Leader, I completely whiffed on saying that Ocho would have an amazing season this year. I was drooling at the teaming up of Brady and the (up until now) vastly underrated Ochocinco, and a couple of my fantasy drafts took a hit because of it. But give Eli and the Giants credit. I still think his numbers are going to cool off with the weather, and as their schedule toughens up.
• Also Baltimore, somehow pulled out the game against the Steelers this weekend. There was a bunch more luck involved in this game though than the one earlier in the season, but a W is a W. They still seem to me like a team that is very inconsistent. They’re able to get themselves going for their “superbowl” games, but then come out and struggle against a rookie QB and the Jags. So I think the jury is still out on the Ravens, but nice win this week.
• As for fantasy, a few of my awards players had bye’s this week, and McCoy plays tonight so we’ll have to see on that one. I mentioned liking AJ Green a couple times this past week, and he had a bit of a lack-luster game getting only 8 fantasy points.
• Lastly, I mentioned liking Dez Bryant earlier this week, and he (along with most of the Dallas O) had a surprisingly week game against the Seahawks this week. Dallas got the win, but numbers were down. Don’t forget, Pete Carroll is a pretty good defensive coach, and a couple weeks ago they beat the Giants in New York. So I’m still buying here, but my patience is running low waiting for Dallas to finally click.

Whew… that was a much longer “Wrong” list than I would have liked, but oh well there’s always next week. Let’s now look ahead to the MNF game tonight, that is looking like it’s going to be a good one. On paper, it looks like it’s the classic Power O vs. Power D type game, however both of these teams have had their down weeks on the side of the ball where they’re supposed to dominate. Chicago has given up 30 to the Saints, 27 to Green Bay, 29 to Carolina, and 24 to the Lions… and we all know Vick has had his share of poor QB mistakes. Everyone at ESPN seems to be talking about Vick starting to be able to “read the field”. It’s like the buzz term of the week. I still think they’re a small finesse team that has a real weakness with turnovers. But we’ll have to see. I don’t feel a huge need to go into great detail about the fantasy impact here… Everyone owns Vick, everyone owns McCoy, and Avant, and Celek, and Maclin, and Forte and Hester (in return points leagues)… It should be a nice match up of stars tonight with points to be had all around. I say enjoy the game, because the NFL is really showing why it has become America’s sport with thrilling match ups week in and week out. Every game seems more important than the last. I have the Eagles tonight, in a lower scoring game than you might imagine… Let’s just hope that this week doesn’t end up at 7-7. Fingers crossed.

Thanks for reading folks. This is Jake at Sports Stock Radio.

7-6 today. Ugh.

It’s days like today where I can at least hang my hat on being better than a coin flip.

Here are my picks for this lovely Sunday:

• Bills over the Jets in a big game for both teams trying to make a statement
• Dallas easily over Seattle
• Atlanta relatively easily over Indy
• Kansas City over Miami in a battle of two pretty shaky teams
• New Orleans to get revenge over Tampa
• 49ers over the Redskins
• Houston over Cleveland
• Cincinnati to beat the Titans
• The Raiders over Denver in hopes that they can get their QB situation straightened out
• New England over the Giants
• Rams over the Cardinals
• Sigh…. Green Bay over San Diego.
• Pitt to get revenge against the Ravens
• And the Eagles over da Bears on Monday night

With 8 weeks under our belt, I decided that I’d borrow an idea from the awesome guys at NFL Live, and have our own version of the Mid-Season Awards. Now, I didn’t watch their version, but just like everything else here at Sports Stock Radio, these awards are going to be fantasy centered. I know Saturdays are supposed to be video days, but I missed my post yesterday and I think this should be a pretty good combination/substitute. So lets get right to it.

Best Quaterback: I’m giving this award to the one and only Cam Newton. While the Panthers are only 2-6, you’ll remember that these awards are fantasy centered. And real life wins don’t always translate to fantasy points (just ask Andy Dalton: 5-2, yet only 84 fantasy points) and, as with Mr. Newton, the opposite is also quite true. The rookie has scored more points than any other player in the whole NFL up to this point. And while this era’s NFL is trending towards the strong passing game (the top 5 fantasy scorers are all QB’s: Newton, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Brady), Cam might not be winning games, but he’s putting up points. He’s 2nd in the league in passing yards, T7th in passing TD’s, T3rd in passing plays of 40+ yards, and T3rd in rushing TD’s (all positions included). Cam has surpassed all expectations set of him… at least as far as fantasy value is concerned.

Best Running Back: I literally wrote an entire paragraph for Adrian Peterson to get this award… but I had to delete it. AP leads RB’s in rushing yards, TD’s, and total fantasy points… But there is one stat that I simply can’t get past, and it’s the one that cost him the title. Through reading my articles you know that one thing I love above almost anything in fantasy football is consistency. And that is the one area where Peterson is getting beaten. So, my best running back of the season is: LeSean McCoy of the Eagles. What was the stat that tipped the scales in his favor? McCoy is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game, whereas Peterson is only at 18. But what attracts me more is that Peterson has had 3 games where he hasn’t reached the double digit mark, and McCoy has yet to do so. From week 1 to 8, McCoy has scored at least 10 points. Of course that means that for AP to be beating him, McCoy’s highs aren’t as high as AP’s. But his lows are much better. And that’s something I love in fantasy. Avoiding the bad games. And McCoy simply doesn’t have them.

Best Wide Receiver: I believe this is likely the biggest blow out position. It’s not even close. Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions has taken himself (and Matt Stafford by connection) to an entirely different level. He has the highest total fantasy points of all WR’s, trailing only the top 5 QB’s and the two RB’s I just mentioned, in overall rankings. But the shocking thing is that it isn’t even close. He has nearly 30 more total points than #2 Wes Welker. He only has the 3rd most yards, but has 5 more TD’s than any other WR, and is 2nd in plays of over 40 yards. Megatron is a beast. Plain and simple. The Lions seem to be really pulling it together this year, and many of their players are hot fantasy commodities.

Best TE: The second biggest blow out is here at the tight end position. It seems to be a struggling position over all this season in all but 1 or 2 cases. Perennial powerhouse Antonio Gates only has about 25 points on the year. Generally strong Vernon Davis is outside the top 10. And only 4 TE’s in all have 60 or more total points. So much like Megatron leads the receivers, so does Jimmy Graham lead the TE’s. He leads in total fantasy points by about 20, leads receiving yards by 200, and is only second in TD’s (to a player he leads in yards by nearly 600).

Best Defense: Depending on which fantasy system you use, the Lions and Ravens defense flip flop as to which has the most fantasy points so far (ESPN likes Baltimore, and Yahoo! likes the Lions). So for my pick, I’m going to look at their divisions. I believe in looking at divisions when considering wide spanning stats like overall defense or offense. The Ravens have to play the Steelers and the surprisingly good Bengals twice each this season, whereas the only potent offense in the Lions division is the Packers. This means the Lions are generally in the better position to put up points against fewer powerhouse offenses. The truth of the matter is that defenses are scoring surprisingly well with 11 over the 60 point mark (on Yahoo!), as compared to only 4 TE’s. So make sure you keep everything in perspective while considering the value of different pieces within trades; generally speaking a good defense will set you up better than a good TE.

Lastly I want to include a section to help those out who aren’t exactly feeling like mid-season is any time to celebrate, and are getting killed by byes and injuries. These are the best value picks as I see them.

Best Value Picks at Each Position:

QB: Matt Hasselbeck. I believe I mentioned him a while back as having an extremely quiet, yet productive, season. He’s the 13th ranked QB on ESPN and is only owned in 55% of leagues, and only starting in 17%. His stock is extremely low for being statistically so high. There are plenty of big name QB’s who aren’t playing up to expectations this year (Rivers anybody?), and Hasselbeck is not only out scoring Rivers, he’s out averaging him, and has only 1 single digit game, to Rivers’ 2. Colt McCoy is another great example of the Hasselbeck situation, and has nearly identical numbers, but has much lower own/start percentages.

RB: The problem with RB’s is that the best are almost always owned. Therefore, the only value I can really comment on is those who are only being started in small numbers. There aren’t generally many great options you can pick up in free agency, but trades are still possible options. The best example of this is Darren Sproles of the Saints. While he is owned in 100% of leagues, he’s only starting in just under 70% of them. That is still a high number, but he might still be tradeable if you have excess value at another position. I generally shy away from having Saints players because of their extremely spread out offense. But with Mark Ingram out with injury, Sproles has one less guy to fight against for touches. Granted, he’s not my favorite back out there… but he has value that you might actually be able to get.

WR: My man for this category is one that I know I’ve talked about before, and that is AJ Green of the Bengals. For specific stats read this post, but also be aware that even though he’s owned at 100%, he’s only getting the start around 70% like Sproles. And with there being 3 Wide Receiver positions per team in most leagues… that tells me that 3 out of 10 people don’t even think he’s in their top 3 options. That screams trade value. Maybe sneak a trade with a big name TE, and see if you can get any bites.

TE: I’m going to have to be pretty liberal with how I define value here… but there has been one name that has been popping up in my stat checks tonight… and that is Scott Chandler, TE for Buffalo. Now, we know the big 3 in Buffalo are all producing out of their shoes (Fitzpatrick, Johnson, and Jackson), but don’t forget about this generally no-name TE. He’s ranking towards the top TE’s this season (which isn’t saying a whole lot), but he’s only owned at 28%. The problem with Chandler is consistency. He’s not a yards guy (barely over 100 on the year), but he seems to be a big red zone target. He actually leads all tight ends with 6 TD’s, but it’s extremely hit and miss. If he doesn’t find the end zone, then he doesn’t nearly get enough yards to make up for it… But if he does, then there’s a quick 6 points. If you’re really desperate, #1 remember that all TE’s are slacking this year, and #2 give Chandler a look. He’s basically a roll of the dice, but sometimes that’s the best you can ask for.

DEF: Just like the surprising AJ Green and Andy Dalton, you might be surprised to find out that the Bengals D is ranking 4th in fantasy points on ESPN. They’re 2nd in rush D, and 9th in pass D, both in yards allowed. And they’re again ranked 4th in points allowed per game. They are averaging about 12 fantasy points per game, but they have had a few stinkers against the likes of the Bills, the Orton-Broncos, and Browns, but I don’t think there’s a defense in the league that has been completely safe this season considering the way that offenses have been dominating the game.

Alright, well I guess that’s it for this brief awards article. I was going to try to get quirky with things… maybe stuff like “Most likely to double their score” or “Defense most likely to get the most picks on Brady” but… the Game of the Century is on, and I’m human. I’m also Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading Sports Stock.