Sports Stock Radio

Hello readers, welcome to week nine. We can almost see the light at the end of the bye week tunnel… and I know that that means good things for all of us. But, since we’re not there yet, there is still work to be done. Changing your team to be effective during bye weeks is one of the biggest skills that a fantasy owner can have. Its nice to know that you should draft Calvin Johnson if he’s still on the board… but the real test, is what do you do when he’s on bye this week? So today, in honor of Megatron being on bye, I’m going to talk about the WR position, and specifically where you might be able to find some value that is selling low, or where stock is falling.

• Lets begin with AJ Green. If you follow college football then chances are that you’ve heard of this former Georgia Bulldog before… but if not, he’s been having one of the quietest superstar seasons in the league. A lot was made during this past draft about who, between himself and Julio Jones of Alabama, would be the best WR to be taken. Cincinnati looked like it was going to be a dumpster fire of a team this year after getting rid of Ocho, TO, and Carson Palmer as well as generating serious questions about the validity of the ownership. But then something surprising happened. Andy Dalton did well. AJ Green did well. And now they might be the biggest sleeper in the NFL. All you have to do is look at the stats folks. Green has only dipped below double digits ONCE ALL SEASON, leading to him being the 6th ranked WR in football. So why am I bringing him up? There’s no way you’ll be able to get him right? Wrong. While Green is owned in nearly 100% of leagues… he’s only getting the start in 80% on Yahoo! and 66% on ESPN! That’s huge folks. You know what that tells me? He’s tradeable. Even the people who own him don’t realize how well he’s doing. He’s an autostart on virtually any line up… and you can get him for maybe a #2 running back. The word here is BUY!
• To contrast this, one big name athlete whose stock is falling quickly is Dez Bryant. I remember watching on draft day a few years back when Dez was drafted to the Cowboys and thinking to myself, Man… that teaming up is going to be HUGE. At times it has been, and at others… not so much. The problem here is that Dez is a bit of an inconsistent WR, and Romo is a bit of an inconsistent QB. Now, if they’re clicking on the same day, then that means huge things for fantasy owners (proven by his double digit games against the Rams, Lions, and Jets). But the concern is that this isn’t always the case. Dez tends to loose steam in certain games, and Romo is slowly proving that he’s not necessarily as reliable as I had once thought… While there are good games to be had, especially considering Dallas’ soft schedule for much of the rest of the season… The inconsistency is something I have a hard time getting past. Yes he’s averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game (a stat that I usually love) but in this case it is a bit deceiving because that number comes from averaging the occasional 15 point game with the 2 and 6 point games. I say SELL for Dez Bryant. He still has enough name power to probably get you a decent trade… so go for consistency and fill those bye week gaps.
• The last topic I want to cover is a bit of a interesting one, and it is so because it doesn’t necessarily apply to every fantasy owner out there. That is the issue of the WR that also serves as a kick returner. Now, not every fantasy league awards points for return yards/TD’s… and in those leagues guys like Antonio Brown of the Steelers, Josh Cribbs of the Browns, Devin Hester of the Bears, and Ted Ginn Jr. of the 49ers have very little fantasy value… BUT please be aware that you can take advantage of your league by knowing all the rules. And if your league is one of the ones where return work is rewarded with fantasy points, there is incredible value to explore while trying to fill in bye week gaps. Let me give you the numbers of the guys I’ve mentioned: Antonio Brown: 120 total fantasy points this season WITH return points (as well as only dipping below double digits once this season), 46 WITHOUT. Josh Cribbs: 94 WITH, 34 WITHOUT. Hester: 104 WITH, 47 WITHOUT.  Ted Ginn Jr.: 95 WITH, 21 WITHOUT. So all I’m saying is that with this rule in place, some of these guys place themselves among the top echelon of WR’s in the NFL… but in order to take advantage of this, you have to be aware of the scoring rules of your league. There are tons of quirks out there that you should be aware of in order to maximize your fantasy potential. For example, be aware that QB’s score less points than RB’s or WR’s for yards and TD’s, so if someone tries to trade you a mediocre QB for a RB or WR, be aware that the points will be harder to come by. Another thing I’ve seen is that some leagues award bonus points for players that achieve certain in-game milestones (e.g. 1 bonus point for a QB reaching 300 passing yards, etc). Now these are generally done within friendly leagues where you all might know each other… but just keep an eye out for them because any advantage you might be able to gain over an opponent will better your chances for success.

In closing, I know today’s article was a little light on stats… (though always stocked with ideas!!!) but I guess it’s just one of those days. I’m still reeling from my Chargers loss. The great Colin Cowherd once said something to the effect of “You’re only a homer if it causes you to pick incorrectly.” And my last two Charger picks have been incorrect, and we have the Packers coming into town this week… and I’m not exactly sure what I’m going to do. Help me readers!

This has been Sports Stock Radio. I am, of course, Jake your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading.

How ‘bout football yesterday? Some surprising blow-outs, and even more surprising upsets! (Although I am claiming that my post from mid-game yesterday brought back the struggling Giants AND Ravens).

How’d I do?

• I went 8-4 on my game picks (hopefully 9-4 after tonight). I got both of the close games wrong… I called New England over Pitt, and Dallas over the Eagles. I didn’t sniff out the Rams upset. And Cam only lost by a late game field goal. So overall this puts me at 71-44 for the season.
• I was right on just about everything in the Pats/Steelers game except for the winner. Big Ben had a nice day (25pts on Yahoo!, 20 on ESPN), Steelers D was mediocre (6 points on Yahoo!, 8 on ESPN), and Brady’s numbers were brought down to a relatively pedestrian level (16 Yahoo!, 15 ESPN). But for some reason I still had faith that the Pats would find a way to pull out the win, I’ll know better from now on.
• Kolb and Fitzgerald on the Cardinals both with for single digits (around 8-9 points each) this week against the Ravens, which is about what I expected.
• Vick had a really nice game (20+), Romo barely scraped out double digits, LeSean McCoy had one of the best fantasy games of the week… however, the Dallas receivers might as well have not even played (only putting up 2 points each fantasy wise). I expected this game would be a bit of a shoot out, which is reflected in a few of the fantasy scores out there… but for the most part, it was all Eagles for the entire 60 minutes.
• The Lions D flat lit up Timmy Terrific scoring 28 on ESPN, with 7 sacks and 2 TD’s. Their offense also did pretty well with Stafford scoring in the 20’s, and Megatron in the high-teens.
• And finally… I’m officially calling it for Chris Johnson. 4 points against the Colts D? Really? I said earlier that this would be a very telling game. Either he would turn it on this week… or the season would be a bust. I’m Selling on Chris Johnson’s Season. But most of all I feel bad for the Titans paying over $50 million for a 30 yard per game RB. That must stink.

Alright, the last thing I want to get to is a quick Monday Night Preview, real life is calling with it being Halloween and all. I did pick the Chargers to win, but I have a slight feeling it might be a closer game than most are expecting. The Chargers had a really tough game against the Jets last week, failing to close it out once a lead was built. And they’re going to have to be very careful with that this week playing in one of the loudest stadiums in the country out at Arrowhead, especially on a holiday which will likely have the fans extra energized. I predict the Chargers getting a quick lead, but if the Chiefs look to start a comeback… beware of the fans playing a huge role in creating momentum. As far as fantasy is concerned, Philip Rivers is projected to get about 15, which I think sounds about right against the middle of the road Chiefs Pass D (ranked 18th in yards allowed, but T4th in TD’s given up). Reports are also saying that second string/goal line RB Mike Tolbert is likely going to be out with a combo hamstring/hand injury, so look for Ryan Mathews to have a better than usual game, and to bounce back after a poor showing against the Jets. As for the Chiefs, their skill players have always been a little sporadic for my taste, Bowe has had both a 1 and over 20 point game game this season, and Cassel has had a high 20’s game and a -3 effort. So, if they’re who you’re stuck with, then good luck to ya… Mark Sanchez has had a negative point game this season, and he managed to get 18 on the Chargers.

This has been Sports Stock Radio, and I am Jake your Fantasy Sports Broker… Thanks for reading, and make sure to have plenty of candy tonight. I know I will.

Saints aren’t looking great either…

Game time is rapidly approaching… so let’s make sure we all have our line-ups in order, and here’s a recap of who I’m buying and selling.

Buy:

• Ben Roethlisburger: Look for a huge game for him in his game against the Pats this week. The New England pass D is one of the worst in the league, and as you well know… Tom Brady is going to put up points, so Big Ben will likely be playing a catch-up game. That means big passing numbers and great fantasy value.
• Lions D: After a week of taking heat in the media this week, look for the Lions D to have a statement game against the very sack-able Tim Tebow (6 against the Dolphins who have only had 7 for the entire rest of the season.)
• Chris Johnson: If he’s ever going to break out of this funk he’s been in this season… it should be this week against the porous Colts run D. This is one of those games where I make my prediction, and wrong or not… I learn a lot about the player going forward. If CJ28 goes big today, look for him to gain some more confidence, and value moving forward. If not… this might be the last week where you can reasonably give him a shot. (*just heard this exact topic discussed on Fantasy Football Now* Go me! lol.)
• Philadelphia/Dallas Skill players: Yep. I’m buying the lot of them. If you can get your hands on the likes of Vick, Romo, Dez, Miles Austin, McCoy, Jackson, any of them… do it, and give them the start this week. It’s a rivalry game and both offenses have been catching heat for a few weeks now. Look for a shoot-out in this one, with both sides trying to prove the validity of their offense.

Selling:

• Pats O/ Pitt D: Like I’ve been saying, this should turn out to be a game where both sides take the other’s fantasy value down. I’m not saying Brady wont be Brady, but he might go for 15 instead of 20, or some variation of that. The Pitt D will probably get a couple sacks on him, and maybe a pick… but they’re going to give up points.
• Arizona Offense: Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I though Kolb in AZ would have really made a drastic difference in the direction of the organization. He looked good in Philly, and I figured that giving him a weapon like Larry Fitzgerald would have put him over the top… But then real life happened. Kolb is sitting at 23rd of all fantasy QB’s, behind the likes of Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton. Beanie Wells isn’t having a terrible season, but it nursing a knee injury this week. And while Fitzgerald is the #12 WR, the #1 WR (Calvin Johnson) has TWICE as many points as him. Also, after their abysmal showing against the Jags last week, look for an extra motivated Raven’s D.
• Peyton Hillis: First of all, he didn’t practice much if at all this week due to his hamstring injury… but he’s just been having a strange season. Remember that game where he didn’t play because of strep throat? And then it was assumed that he was being a bit of a dissenter due to contract battles. I personally hate that type of activity… and while Peyton took my fantasy teams last season all the way… I have to say that he has greatly cooled down from his explosive season last year.

Injuries:

I can’t possibly cover every single injury out there this week… but thankfully we have the diligence of ESPN’s Stephania Bell at our disposal. Read her injury blog here, and adjust your line-ups accordingly.

Alright, that’s it for this week’s Quick-Tips. I want to give a shout out to my heroes at Fantasy Football Now, seriously guys they’re one of the best resources out there for getting your line-ups in order last minute. ESPN2 from 830-10 (west coast), can’t beat it. This has been Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading, and lets have a good weekend.

Hey readers. Sorry I’ve been absent these last couple days… sometimes life happens. I was originally considering posting an article and a video today to make up for it… but just to ensure I don’t compromise the quality of either, I’m solely dedicated to making my first Sports Stock Video. Look for it sometime tonight, and don’t forget that there will also be a Sunday Quick Tips tomorrow before game time. Thanks!

It’s Big Article Wednesday! Let’s do it.

Here’s who I’m BUYING and SELLING for the weekend ahead:

• How about them Lions? Historically, they’ve been a terrible team for as long as most of us can remember… But what that means in football is that you get the chance to change your franchise by making some high picks in the draft. And listen to these first round picks: Calvin Johnson (2007), Matt Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew (2009), Ndomukong Suh and Jahvid Best (2010), and Nick Fairley (2011). Those are starters folks. And this year it seemed like it was all finally coming together. They had one of the hottest starts in football this season, and the Stafford-Johnson passing combo was generally unstoppable… but then, well, they got stopped. Calvin Johnson (AKA Megatron) went for over 20 fantasy points in 4 games of their 5-0 start, but hasn’t touched that number since. That said, Megatron is still in that elite group of cult fantasy superheroes… probably more so than in real NFL. In most leagues across the nation, he’s likely at that untradeable point, so there isn’t much that I can do for you guys at this moment in time. Calvin’s stock is high, and it should be. He has nearly an 18 point per week average, he’s ranking 3rd in receiving yards, 5th in receptions, 2nd in plays over 40 yards, and 1st in TD’s. If for some reason you have amazing value at back-up, then perhaps you can roll the dice in attempting a trade but don’t expect getting Megatron this late in the season, especially with a big week likely coming against Denver. The word is STAY for Megatron. If you have him, you know how valuable he is, and don’t you dare trade down. If you don’t have him… good luck. Now, how about the rest of the team?
• ESPN reported Monday that Matt Stafford’s MRI came back clean in regards to his ankle injury. This means he should probably be on the field against the Denver Tebows. This is good if he’s able to play at a high level because Denver is allowing the 4th most passing TD’s in the league. They’re 18th in pass yards allowed, and T2nd in number of 40+ yard plays allowed. If Stafford is a go, there is no reason you shouldn’t start him… BUT, what are his prospects for the rest of the season? He’s got an 18+ fantasy point average, which is nice. He’s 6th in passing yards, T3rd in TD’s, and (in what is becoming my favorite stat) is T3rd in plays of 40+ yards. Yet, with all of that said… the Lions seem to have that feeling of trending downward. Like Megatron, his fantasy numbers have dipped since they’ve started losing, and he’s coming of his (statistically) worst game of the season against Atlanta who are nowhere near the league’s best pass D. Also keep in mind that due to their division, Stafford is going to have to face the Packers twice and the Bears once more before the season is out. The thing I love about Stafford though is that his value is LOW. He’s owned in nearly every league out there, but the interesting thing is that he’s only getting the start in 70-75% of those teams. That tells me he’s being used as a back-up when he could easily start for pretty much any team. The word is BUY for Stafford. At this point in the season, you know what your quarterback is. If you’re in the hot seat with a struggling Rivers as your starter, or a struggling Josh Freeman, a struggling Matt Ryan… try and pick up Stafford. He looks to be worth it.
• I also wanted to briefly hit Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew. First for Best, get him out of your line-up. It looks like he’s still dealing with post-concussion symptoms. As a sufferer of a concussion myself, I can tell you that the road back is a tough one. Granted plenty of NFL guys start the week after, but reports say that Best is still day-to-day and the experts are predicting a warm spot on the bench for him. Even as the season moves on, Best is likely a low #1, high #2 RB. He’s averaging about 11.5 points per game, and is middle of the road in pretty much every important stat. He probably deserves the start on most teams, but I’m not jumping out of my shoes for anything he’s been doing. Again, think of the defenses in the Lions division and move forward accordingly. All-in-all he’s a nice back… get him out of your line-up this week, but its a small BUY for Best. As for Pettigrew, he’s a pretty nice player at a position that has been struggling this year in the league. There are only 3 TE’s hitting a double-digit average right now, and Pettigrew isn’t one of them. As far as total points go, Jimmy Graham is blowing the rest of the league away with over 100 on Yahoo!, but the reality is that most are somewhere in the 30-70 point range. Pettigrew is a nice start (50 total points so far, with a 6.3 average) at a league-wide struggling position. Again, a very small BUY here. There’s that one guy in every league that’s dominating at TE, but for the rest of us… We’ll just have to get by with the Pettigrew’s of the world.
• As much as I want to move on to the Lions’ D… I think it’s time for a new topic. So, quiz time: Who in this league essentially missed the first 3 games of the season, and yet is still in the Top 10 in total points of his position? If you guessed Arian Foster, you’d be right. After starting the season with that debacle of tweeting a picture of his injured leg… those of us who drafted him anyway, are loving ourselves right now. Since legitimately starting in Week 4, he hasn’t dipped under double-digit points, including one 30 point game, and a 40 point masterpiece. Now I feel like after his injury, and a bit of a sub-par game against the Ravens (Hello… they’re the Ravens) a couple weeks ago, Foster might still be flying a bit under the radar. But let me tell you folks, he is RAPIDLY climbing the ladder of best RB’s in the league. A bit like how I talked about Cam Newton last week, the time is now to attempt a BUY on Foster. You might catch someone sleeping on him willing to trade to fill holes. Test the waters, see what it might take to get him, and evaluate your options. Also, I’m a big believer of looking ahead at a players remaining games… Aside from the surprising #5 Bengals, and #6 Falcons Run D, he faces teams ranked 19, 22, 24, 29, and 31st in the league in stopping the run. That’s huge guys… BUY!
• And finally, the last topic I want to cover today is the highly anticipated Pittsburgh/ Patriots game coming this Sunday. This is looking to be the classic fantasy killer that you see once every few weeks: high powered defense vs. high powered offense. On TV this should make for a really good game, but watch out when it comes to fantasy. Of course Brady and the Patriots Offense are going to get points on the board, and the Pittsburgh D will probably get 2 or 3 sacks and maybe a Pick. But overall, the two sides are going to negate each other. Brady is probably going to go for 250 yards, 2 TD’s, and 1 INT… instead of his normal 350/3/0. Pittsburgh on the other hand will probably get those few big Defensive plays, but you know the Patriots are probably going to find some way to put at least 28 points on the board… and that’s worth a whopping -1 fantasy on both Yahoo! and ESPN. For another example of this, look at the Pats/Jets game from week 5. Brady still got his 300+ yards (which is what saved him in Fantasy) but only managed 1 TD, with 1 INT. On the other side of things, the Jets gave up about 500 total yards, and let 30 points up on the board. Both sides had down weeks. And that’s what I’m seeing here with New England v. Pittsburgh. So be a little more cautious than usual this week when looking at the generally auto-start Pats O and Pitt D.

Alrighty, that’s it for today folks. Stay tuned on Friday when I’ll be recapping the week’s biggest stories, and be on the look out Saturday for my inaugural Sports Stock Video. Thanks for reading. This is Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker.