Sports Stock Radio

Finished My First Draft

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 14:54:07 -0700

Hey readers, just finished my first draft of the season and I thought I’d post it for you all to see. Not too much analysis in this post… but just understand that if I picked someone, I liked their potential A LOT.

QB: Matt Ryan ATL

WR: Calvin Johnson DET

WR: Greg Jennings GB

RB: Willis McGahee DEN

RB: Mark Ingram NO

TE: Jimmy Graham NO

DEF: 49ers

K: Matt Bryant ATL

FLEX: Jeremy Maclin PHI

BENCH: Andrew Luck IND, Pierre Garcon WAS, Laurent Robinson JAC, Donald Brown IND, Jacob Tamme DEN, Packers DEF, Rob Bironas TEN.

Welcome Back!

Wed, 29 Aug 2012 12:41:00 -0700

To my readers, I first feel like I must apologize for the way I ended last season’s postings… I left you high-and-dry after Week 11 and simply dropped off the map. See, sometimes things come up that just bog you down and interfere with all of your best intentions. Last year, I decided that I was going to do a semester abroad… and not just any regular semester abroad, a semester with Semester At Sea, where I literally traveled around the world on a ship. And my preparations for this trip coincided with the last few weeks of the football season, and instead of finding time for my regular research and writing, I was instead swamped with college finals, shopping/packing, and making time to say adequate farewells to my friends and family… and so, Sports Stock Radio fell into the cracks.

But it’s a new season… I’m signed up for a slew of fantasy leagues, and I’m ready to take on the game along side all of you. I don’t quite have my research completely ready to post, but I plan on having at least one draft special report before the beginning of the season. After that I’ll be returning to a format that is pretty similar to what I did last season: A Monday article reflecting on the games of Sunday. A shorter mid-week report on Wednesday looking ahead to any Thursday games and reviewing any big league updates. And a big Saturday post where I’ll try and inform you on any new injuries to watch out for, I’ll give you my Buys and Sells of the week, AND I’ll be including my winners for each game of the weekend including special notes regarding strategy for anyone in a Survival Pick League.

So I hope you’re all excited for this season of NFL football, I know I am. I really love writing these articles, it gives me a really interesting creative outlet while still focusing on things I’m passionate about: professional sports and games. So any and all readers are greatly appreciated.

Stay tuned for my first post of the season which should be coming in the next week or so. I have my own first draft this afternoon with a couple more coming this weekend, so once I get through those I’ll start gathering strategic ideas and opinions to pass along here.

Again, thanks for sticking with me though this exceptionally extended off-season… I’m very happy to say that his has been Sports Stock Radio.

Week 11: Wednesday

Wed, 16 Nov 2011 20:12:16 -0800

We’re getting down to it folks! Play-offs are only 1 about a month away, and depending on your type of league, you could have only a few more match-ups left in order to get yourself into the post-season picture. What does this mean? It means you really need to work free agency if any holes in your line-ups still exist, and you need to look at who your backups are in case you have any number of certain players.

For example:

Aaron Rodgers is a double edged sword. For 14 weeks he’s going to be your absolute best friend. But if the Packers remain undefeated, or even something like 13-1… they’re going to have the division locked up, and are going to catch the Peyton Manning syndrome. There is no way in hell (especially if they manage to lose one game and are no longer worrying about going undefeated) that Green Bay management is going to let Rodgers play in those last few regular season games. So then what is a fantasy owner to do? Your best player is going to be inactive when you need him most. I say, trade him! Yes, I know… it’s almost blasphemous to suggest, but the trade deadline is still about a week off in some leagues, and if you put Rodgers on the block, you can get pretty much anything you want. In particular, players who will still be battling come week 15, 16, 17. Players like Brees, Newton, Manning, Rivers, Romo, Ryan… those first three names have yet to drop below double digit fantasy points ALL SEASON. And the last three you could probably get as part of a two player deal. Rodgers for Rivers AND___. Rodgers for Romo AND ___. For Ryan AND___. All of these names are just about as safe as Rodgers, and they’re not going to mail it in come December.
Brady is the one other big name QB who I didn’t include on that list, because I think there’s the chance that he might also earn a rest week late in the season. Granted, the Jets are only 1 game back, but they lost both of the regular season match ups, so it’s unlikely that they’ll overtake the Pats for the division. The only other team that could have a shot is the Bills, who have already beaten the Patriots once this year, and who they’re going to be playing week 17. Now, some leagues have a play off game week 17, some do not. So just be aware of your rules, and what’s going on in the league. If the Pats and Bills are still very close come the end of the season, look for Brady to be an option in your championship hopes. If for some reason the Bills begin to drop off (which is possible after their poor showing against the Jets two weeks ago) then you might need to look elsewhere.
The 49ers are also a team who are running away with their division. I mean, at this point, it’s really all but clinched. Now San Francisco is winning games primarily with their stingy defense, and because of this they don’t really have a huge helping of fantasy players… but RB Frank Gore might be someone you’ll want to watch out for with possible rest weeks. Alex Smith is a guy who’s at the low end of good QB’s, about in the Fitzpatrick/Freeman/Dalton range… so if he’s your guy I would continue to expect about what you’ve been getting so far: average performances, but still getting into double digits pretty often.

And that brings us to Thursday Night… This week will feature a match up between the Jets and the Broncos… and two QB’s who their coaches hate. I kid. But a lot has been made this week in the media about a few quotes by Rex Ryan and John Fox about their respective quarterbacks; Rex essentially calling his stupid, and Fox saying his isn’t fit to run an NFL offense. Yet somehow, both teams are finding ways to win. The Jets only stand 1 game behind the Pats, and Timmy Terrific has won all but 1 start this season. However, I think this might very well be the week where things begin to go south for which ever team loses. If the Jets lose, I think the whole team has a shot at imploding. Rex has been all over Mark Sanchez (and really the rest of his team) for not being the team he predicted they would be in the preseason. And should they lose this game against the Broncos… look for some drama. As for Timmy Terrific, if he loses this week, it will surely be because teams are finally getting enough tape on what he’s doing in the Option Offense, and now able to stop it. If there’s one thing to be said about Rex Ryan, it’s that he knows how to set up a defense. And with the all-star corners they have going for them, look for the passing game to be all but non-existent for the Broncos (again), allowing the Jets to really hone in on the run. I’m picking the Jets to win, but look for the Broncos to put up a nice fight.

This has been Sports Stock Radio and me, Jake. Thanks for reading.

Another Coin-Flip Week

Mon, 14 Nov 2011 12:14:03 -0800

Well readers… 9-7 isn’t too terrible. Which is where I should be after the Pack win tonight. This season has just been really unexplainable. I heard it on SportsScenter last night… the differences in teams from week to week is simply incredible. One week after what appeared to be a statement win over Pittsburgh, the Ravens come out and lose to the Seahawks. Two weeks after a HUGE win over Dallas, the Eagles get beat by a Cardnials team with a QB by the name of Skelton… AND even though I did predict the 49ers over the Giants, I think that’s still somewhat of a surprise win for most people. I’m riffing this idea off of the headline story on NFL.com today, which is the surprising fact that all 4 NFC West (or Worst) teams won this past weekend. Of course that’s not all that happened… The Pats took down the surging Jets, The Saints unfortunately beat the Falcons in OT, and Carolina only managed to put up 3 points against the Titans (the same Titans who have given up 16 to Jacksonville, 38 to Pitt, 41 to the Texans and 24 to the Bengals).

As for my Quarterbacks post that I did a few days back, my predictions turned out ok. Tebow and Palmer both went for double digits this week, and both won their respective match-ups. Tebow put up about 100 total yards, and 1 passing and rushing TD against the Chiefs (who, may I remind you, defeated the Chargers on Halloween pretty handily). And Carson threw for about 300 yards, 2 TD’s an a pick. And as a side note, when you look at those numbers and think who had the better fantasy game, you’d surely be thinking Palmer… but that would be incorrect. Tebow got 1 more point than him on both ESPN and Yahoo! Which I think goes to show again, how much value a running QB has, even if he’s not great in real life terms. I also talked about the rookies, Gabbert and Ponder. Gabbert had a pretty pedestrian game this week: 8.5 points on Yahoo!, 6 on ESPN. This though is especially disappointing in a way similar to the Chris Johnson a couple weeks back… look, Indianapolis is BAD. If you have a fantasy player going against Indy, the rule of thumb is START him. But in these two instances, Gabbert and CJ, two questionable guys have proved a lot to me in a loss. If you can’t get it done against the Colts this year, who are you going to get it done against? Ponder is yet to play, finding Green Bay in the game tonight. The general idea is that his numbers should be down against a Defense like that of the Packers… but don’t forget that it was those same Packers who gave the struggling Philip Rivers his best fantasy game of the season. In fact, ESPN has the Packers ranked 28th in the league against opposing QB’s, having only 1 game all season where they held them to less than double digits. I’m not saying Ponder is going to have a break out game, I don’t even think the Vikings are going to win… But like I said before, there is a small bit of value in him during crunch time situations.

Now, that last topic already got into tonight’s game a little bit, but let me finish up with the rest of the players that should be featured tonight. For the Vikings, the only other real fantasy impact player is, of course, Adrian Peterson. AP has always been on that short list of fantasy players where the biggest question about him… is whether you should take him as the first pick in the draft. He’s been a producer week in and week out for years now. Overall, he’s 3rd in ESPN’s RBs but that should change after tonight’s game needing only 15 points to take over the #1 spot. The thing with Peterson, is that he’s a work-horse. He gets those tough yards, and is an incredibly valuable asset to middle of the road QB’s like the Vikings have had the last few seasons. This is great to fantasy owners because it simply means that he gets the ball a lot. For the Packers, what more is there to say about Aaron Rodgers? He’s having an incredible season this year, one of the best I’ve ever seen. I was able to watch him in detail two weeks ago against the Chargers… and some of the throws he was making, were simply incredible. It’s interesting because on Yahoo! Brees is actually beating him for the top spot by 1 point (which will surely be overtaken after tonight) but on ESPN Rodgers is blowing Brees away, and will probably have around a 60 point lead after tonight. One thing I do want to mention about the Packers offense though is something that I think about a few offenses out there today… and that is that they tend to spread the ball around too much for my fantasy taste. Yes, this is great for real world results… but in fantasy, unless you draft Rodgers who is at the helm of all of the plays (or Kicker Mason Crosby who is kicking out of his shoes with all their scoring), the question of who else to take (or start on any given week) is a bit of a difficult one. Greg Jennings is the safest bet, who is going for double digits nearly every week… but their next best receiver, Jordy Nelson,is only averaging 10.5 points with plenty of stinkers to go around. Their best running back, James Starks, is behind Chris Johnson in fantasy points this year. If it weren’t for a 26 point game against the Bears, TE Jermichael Finley would be the epitome of average. And their “lock down defense” is only 8th in the league behind the likes of the Bengals, Texans, and 49ers.

Granted a few of these ranks will go up after getting some points tonight, but there have always been those offense who spread the ball around too much for my liking… The Packers, Saints, Patriots, Chargers, Eagles (and the Bengals, Cowboys, Giants and Jets to lesser degrees) are all good examples for this. And what do these teams have in common (except maybe the Bengals and Jets)? They all have amazing fantasy QBs: Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Vick, Romo, and Manning. Why is this? Because they hog all of the teams points. Even though they might get the ball to 7 different receivers in a game, they’re still the ones throwing all of the passes, and other than themselves, it makes it difficult for fantasy owners to figure out who might have a big week in any given game. So with all of that said, I obviously love Aaron Rodgers, and if you have him on one of your fantasy teams this season, then you’re probably loving life right now. But as far as the rest of the Packers go, I’m a bit hesitant to make them weekly starters. Proceed with caution readers.

This has been Sports Stock Radio. I am of course Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker… and I am picking the Pack tonight over the Vikings.

Sorry Readers

Sun, 13 Nov 2011 09:56:49 -0800

I’ve been on family vacation this weekend, in celebration of Veterans Day. So let me take this opportunity to give an enormous thank you to all of our nation’s soldiers past, present, and future. Personally, I’m not a fan of all of our wars, but I have the utmost respect for those who fight in them, and those who give the ultimate sacrifice for our freedoms at home.

With that said, there’s 10 minutes til kickoff, so here are my picks of the week:

Atlanta over New Orleans at home
Pittsburgh to use home field advantage to stop the surging Bengals
Rams over the Browns
Bills to prove they’re for real over Dallas
Jags over the Colts
The Denver Tebows over the Chiefs
Dolphins to get another win over the Redskins
Eagles over the Cardinals
Texans over the Bucs
Carolina over Tennessee
Baltimore easily over the Seahawks
Lions over da Bears
49ers over the Giants
Jets over New England
Packers over the Vikings

Lots of tough picks this week reader, there are honestly about 6 that I could go either way on. So we’ll see what happens.

Week 10: Wednesday

Wed, 09 Nov 2011 09:56:30 -0800

So who’s excited for the second Thursday Night game of the season? Ya, it shouldn’t exactly be as entertaining as that 42-38 Packers v Saints game to start off the year… but you know that as a Charger fan, I’m rooting for my Bolts to finally put it together. But there are a couple other things I want to talk about before we get to that.

When thinking about a topic for today, I realized that I haven’t really talked about one of the biggest stories of the whole season so far, Timmy Terrific. I’ve picked a few of his games, but I haven’t discussed his real impact on the NFL and Fantasy Football. So I thought I’d take today and talk about Tebow, along with 3 or 4 other new QB’s that have entered the league mid-season and what, if any, fantasy value they have.

TIM TEBOW: After entering the league week 5, Tebow has had 4 games (with one week off on bye) with double digit fantasy points, including his half game against the Chargers. Let me just say what I feel about running QB’s before hitting Tebow specifically… The thing about them is that they are the epitome of players that have more fantasy than real life value. Now first you have to understand the difference between running, and mobile. Steve Young was mobile, Aaron Rodgers is mobile, Big Ben is a little mobile… but they are not RUNNING QB’s, most of their touchdowns are still based on passing. When you talk about running QB’s you bring up the names of Vick, Vince Young, Tim Tebow, and Cam Newton. Running QB’s have inherently more fantasy value because rushing TD’s are worth more fantasy points than passing TD’s. In most leagues, a passing TD is worth 4 points, and a Rushing/Receiving TD is worth 6. That means that a running QB is afforded the equivalent of 1 interception (-2 pts) for every rushing TD, while still being equal to a passing QB’s touchdowns. Put another way, in terms of yards… a rushing TD is worth 50 more passing yards (25 yards per point) than an actual passing TD. For example: If Tebow passes for 200 yards with 2 rushing TD’s… that would be EQUAL to Tom Brady passing for 300 yards with 2 passing TD’s, both very likely scenarios. The other thing, is that even if they don’t necessarily score while running, yard while running are worth more as well. In passing, it takes 25 yards to equal 1 fantasy point. But while running it takes only 10. And how many times do you see Vick or Tebow scramble for that rogue first down on 2nd and 10? That’s a point all day long, as opposed to about half a point when Brady throws for it. Now, to get to Tebow specifically. The way fantasy is set up, covers for a lot of Tebow’s flaws. He doesn’t pass a lot, but rushing yards count more. He throws interceptions, but as long as he gets his rushing TD’s it doesn’t matter. So let me just say that in real life, I wouldn’t want Tebow on my team, but he does have fantasy value. In every game (even the terrible one against the Lions) Timmy got his double digits. If nothing else, he is a great injury or bye week replacement. The word is BUY.
CARSON PALMER: He had a nice game last week, at lease fantasy-wise. Yes, he threw 3 picks, and lost the game for the Raiders. But he also had 3 TD’s and threw for 330 yards. He doesn’t have the rushing cushion that Tebow has, so his mistakes get magnified. But remember that the Raiders have a lot of young talented skill position players: Denarious Moore, Darrius Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford at WR and Darren McFadden and Michael Bush at RB. So in that regard, ever since the trade was made, I’ve felt like Palmer had a real shot to be successful, and could make a real fantasy impact. At this point there’s really only 1 bad half, and 1 mediocre game to judge on… but you just have to look at Palmer’s body of work, as well as the pieces he has around him and go off of potential. Similar to Tebow, I don’t know that I would have him start on any of my fantasy teams (given that there aren’t any injury issues), but I wouldn’t say he’s as much of safe bet as the advantages of a running QB. There are two advantages that Palmer has over other backup QB’s, both have to do with the division he plays in. As an AFC West follower myself, I can tell you as well as anyone that practically every year it’s a tight race to see who makes the play-offs. This means that most QB’s will be playing all the way through 16 games, and putting up nice numbers during fantasy play off time (a topic I’ll cover in greater detail in the coming weeks). And secondly, following only the NFC West, the AFC West is arguably the weakest division. That means that Palmer will have to face tough teams less often, and will have more opportunities to shine against the less than potent Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs defenses. The word is a very small BUY for Palmer, but only if your options are limited.
And lastly I want to talk about the two rookie QB’s that have been handed the starting jobs on their respective teams mid-season, and those are Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. I’m lumping them together because in a lot of ways I think their situations are very similar. They’re both on less than average teams (the Jags and Vikings respectively), they themselves are pretty nice budding QB talents, and they both have a solid run game backing them up. Gabbert is leading Ponder in overall fantasy points by around 10, though he has played 4 more games. Ponder has entered the double digit range twice in 3 games, where as Gabbert has only done so once in 7 games. Ponder has around a 50% completion percentage, and Gabbert is at about 45%. They’re both about equal in TD’s, INT’s, and Longest Plays… So, all in all these two players seem like they’re still just getting going in this league. I would probably take Ponder in a tight spot above Gabbert, but as far as this season goes I don’t know if they’re entirely worth the pick up. I would say the word on these two is STAY. “They are who we thought they were”, paraphrasing of course. They’re nice rookies who should have some nice seasons coming up.

And that brings us to Thursday night. Can I just say that the commercial that the NFL network has circulating has me more excited for the game, than the real potential of how it’s going to turn out. Have you seen it readers? The one with the surfer Charger fans, and punk skateboarding Raider fans riding into their homes to watch the game? I thought that was pretty cool. I wish I could find a link for you guys… but I just can’t seem to get it. Anyway, in reality the game is looking to be between two teams who are currently struggling a little bit, with first place in the AFC West on the line. The teams are both on a short rest/study week which is likely to hurt the Raiders more than the Chargers, seeing as how they’re still working on incorporating a new QB into their system. I’ve already talked a bit about the various Raiders skill players and their fantasy impacts, so lets briefly cover the Chargers a little bit. The popular topic with the Chargers this week is that Philip Rivers is seriously struggling. And as a Charger fan, I think the trouble goes a little deeper, possibly up to the level of the play calling ability of Norv Turner. But none of that really matters in the fantasy arena. As much as Rivers has been catching heat recently, he’s still putting up pretty nice fantasy numbers. He’s only had 2 single digit games, and is the 11th ranked fantasy QB. He’s an absolute starter in pretty much any line up unless you lucked out with picking someone like Stafford or Cam as a back up. In the run game, San Diego has the 13th and 17th ranked RB’s with Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert. Matthews is listed as probable for tomorrows game with a groin injury, though his time could very likely be split with Tolbert who tends to get goal line opportunities anyway. If I had to pick between the two, I’d probably go with Tolbert this week, but Matthews’ owners should be fine next week when Ryan gets a long week of rest after this Thursday game. I’ve already written a couple times about Antonio Gates… basically saying that I’m not a huge buyer with that nagging foot/leg injury that he’s been dealing with for some time now. He seems just as likely to get 0 points as he is to get 10-15. In the receiving core, the only real WR of value on the team is Vincent Jackson, who is the 6th ranked fantasy WR. The thing with Jackson though is that, like Gates, he seems just as likely to have a terrible game as a great one. He’s a little too unstable for me, but if you have him on your team, he’s probably worth the start.

For the game I’m picking the Chargers, I think the Raiders are still figuring things out, and Rivers and the rest of the team are likely going to come out with something to prove. I’ll get to the rest of my picks later in the week, but for now, that’s what I got.

This has been Sports Stock Radio. I am Jake your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading.

Weekend Review

Mon, 07 Nov 2011 09:59:44 -0800

Well… it was a strange weekend for me readers. My fantasy projections panned out pretty well, but I couldn’t pick a game to save my life. On one hand, it makes for excellent television. Does anyone else out there have DirectTv? Isn’t it a beautiful thing readers? 8 channels of NFL on one screen where you can flip back and forth at will… Combine that with the apparent parity of the league this year, and it makes for some awesome Sundays. BUT, on the other hand, it’s making me look like a bit of a chump on this lovely blog here. I’ll learn readers, I will.

Here’s what I got right, and what I got wrong:

Right:

Hasselbeck had a nice game this week, putting up 18 on the Bengals. I called him Friday my best value QB and he keeps putting up the numbers. He’s not Rogers getting 30 every week (relish these games folks, because he’s made the jump to an extremely special level), but he is getting double digits week in and week out, and he’s available. If you’re having troubles at QB, consider this guy. Great value selling low.
Sproles went for 15 this week against the Bucs with a receiving TD and about 100 total yards. Like I mentioned before, the problem with RB’s at this point in the season is that all the good ones are owned. But you still might be able to find someone willing to part with Sproles as he’s only getting the start around 67% of the time. I checked the rules of the various leagues I’m playing in this year, and the trade deadline is coming up in the next couple weeks folks. So get your deals done before time runs out and you’re left to waivers.
I finally got over my San Diego homer-ism, picking against them in the game against Green Bay. It was a lot closer than I thought though, and I give the Chargers credit for staying in the game as long as they did, some how managing to turn it into a good old fashioned shoot out. But like I mentioned, Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his shoes right now, and it’s going to take an incredibly special team to have any shot at beating him and the Packers.

WRONG:

Well it was a relatively rough weekend for me here at Sports Stock. Let’s just get the pick stuff over with before we get to fantasy, because I think there’s a lot to be learned there.
First of all, kudos to the Jets for winning a big statement game against the Bills. Going into this weekend the Jets were behind by a game in their division to both the Bills and Patriots, and a loss would have put them 2 back of Buffalo with the Pats coming up next week. But now with a win, they’re tied with the Bills, and have a shot to move into first place with a win over New England next week.
Next there was Miami, playing themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes… Now, I don’t buy giving up games to get a draft pick. But if you watch ESPN everyone there, who are all much smarter and experienced in football than you and I, are saying that Luck is the closest thing to a can’t miss pick. So maybe Miami lets a few guys go, makes a few trades, tries a few new things… But with a win, it leaves only the Colts at 0-9. That should be an interesting storyline to watch as the second half of the season unfolds.
Average is the word for the Raiders in their loss to the Broncos. Carson finally got a full game under his belt and had an AVERAGE performance. 3 TD’s with 3 INT’s. I still feel like he should be able to get it figured out as the season goes along, but for now, the Raiders are an AVERAGE 4-4.
Eli lived up to his “elite” quote this week beating the increasingly pedestrian Patriots. They seem to be beatable by any team with a solid offense and at least middle of the road defense (something that there is plenty of in the league right now). The thing is that Brady is going to put up points against you, but their defense is air thin. If the other team ever gets out to a lead, the Pats are in trouble due to their virtual lack of a deep threat. Like many people at the World Wide Leader, I completely whiffed on saying that Ocho would have an amazing season this year. I was drooling at the teaming up of Brady and the (up until now) vastly underrated Ochocinco, and a couple of my fantasy drafts took a hit because of it. But give Eli and the Giants credit. I still think his numbers are going to cool off with the weather, and as their schedule toughens up.
Also Baltimore, somehow pulled out the game against the Steelers this weekend. There was a bunch more luck involved in this game though than the one earlier in the season, but a W is a W. They still seem to me like a team that is very inconsistent. They’re able to get themselves going for their “superbowl” games, but then come out and struggle against a rookie QB and the Jags. So I think the jury is still out on the Ravens, but nice win this week.
As for fantasy, a few of my awards players had bye’s this week, and McCoy plays tonight so we’ll have to see on that one. I mentioned liking AJ Green a couple times this past week, and he had a bit of a lack-luster game getting only 8 fantasy points.
Lastly, I mentioned liking Dez Bryant earlier this week, and he (along with most of the Dallas O) had a surprisingly week game against the Seahawks this week. Dallas got the win, but numbers were down. Don’t forget, Pete Carroll is a pretty good defensive coach, and a couple weeks ago they beat the Giants in New York. So I’m still buying here, but my patience is running low waiting for Dallas to finally click.

Whew… that was a much longer “Wrong” list than I would have liked, but oh well there’s always next week. Let’s now look ahead to the MNF game tonight, that is looking like it’s going to be a good one. On paper, it looks like it’s the classic Power O vs. Power D type game, however both of these teams have had their down weeks on the side of the ball where they’re supposed to dominate. Chicago has given up 30 to the Saints, 27 to Green Bay, 29 to Carolina, and 24 to the Lions… and we all know Vick has had his share of poor QB mistakes. Everyone at ESPN seems to be talking about Vick starting to be able to “read the field”. It’s like the buzz term of the week. I still think they’re a small finesse team that has a real weakness with turnovers. But we’ll have to see. I don’t feel a huge need to go into great detail about the fantasy impact here… Everyone owns Vick, everyone owns McCoy, and Avant, and Celek, and Maclin, and Forte and Hester (in return points leagues)… It should be a nice match up of stars tonight with points to be had all around. I say enjoy the game, because the NFL is really showing why it has become America’s sport with thrilling match ups week in and week out. Every game seems more important than the last. I have the Eagles tonight, in a lower scoring game than you might imagine… Let’s just hope that this week doesn’t end up at 7-7. Fingers crossed.

Thanks for reading folks. This is Jake at Sports Stock Radio.

Not a great week of picks...

Sun, 06 Nov 2011 20:51:37 -0800

7-6 today. Ugh.

It’s days like today where I can at least hang my hat on being better than a coin flip.

Picks of the Week!

Sun, 06 Nov 2011 09:30:37 -0800

Here are my picks for this lovely Sunday:

Bills over the Jets in a big game for both teams trying to make a statement
Dallas easily over Seattle
Atlanta relatively easily over Indy
Kansas City over Miami in a battle of two pretty shaky teams
New Orleans to get revenge over Tampa
49ers over the Redskins
Houston over Cleveland
Cincinnati to beat the Titans
The Raiders over Denver in hopes that they can get their QB situation straightened out
New England over the Giants
Rams over the Cardinals
Sigh…. Green Bay over San Diego.
Pitt to get revenge against the Ravens
And the Eagles over da Bears on Monday night

Mid-Season Awards

Sat, 05 Nov 2011 19:01:00 -0700

With 8 weeks under our belt, I decided that I’d borrow an idea from the awesome guys at NFL Live, and have our own version of the Mid-Season Awards. Now, I didn’t watch their version, but just like everything else here at Sports Stock Radio, these awards are going to be fantasy centered. I know Saturdays are supposed to be video days, but I missed my post yesterday and I think this should be a pretty good combination/substitute. So lets get right to it.

Best Quaterback: I’m giving this award to the one and only Cam Newton. While the Panthers are only 2-6, you’ll remember that these awards are fantasy centered. And real life wins don’t always translate to fantasy points (just ask Andy Dalton: 5-2, yet only 84 fantasy points) and, as with Mr. Newton, the opposite is also quite true. The rookie has scored more points than any other player in the whole NFL up to this point. And while this era’s NFL is trending towards the strong passing game (the top 5 fantasy scorers are all QB’s: Newton, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford, Brady), Cam might not be winning games, but he’s putting up points. He’s 2nd in the league in passing yards, T7th in passing TD’s, T3rd in passing plays of 40+ yards, and T3rd in rushing TD’s (all positions included). Cam has surpassed all expectations set of him… at least as far as fantasy value is concerned.

Best Running Back: I literally wrote an entire paragraph for Adrian Peterson to get this award… but I had to delete it. AP leads RB’s in rushing yards, TD’s, and total fantasy points… But there is one stat that I simply can’t get past, and it’s the one that cost him the title. Through reading my articles you know that one thing I love above almost anything in fantasy football is consistency. And that is the one area where Peterson is getting beaten. So, my best running back of the season is: LeSean McCoy of the Eagles. What was the stat that tipped the scales in his favor? McCoy is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game, whereas Peterson is only at 18. But what attracts me more is that Peterson has had 3 games where he hasn’t reached the double digit mark, and McCoy has yet to do so. From week 1 to 8, McCoy has scored at least 10 points. Of course that means that for AP to be beating him, McCoy’s highs aren’t as high as AP’s. But his lows are much better. And that’s something I love in fantasy. Avoiding the bad games. And McCoy simply doesn’t have them.

Best Wide Receiver: I believe this is likely the biggest blow out position. It’s not even close. Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions has taken himself (and Matt Stafford by connection) to an entirely different level. He has the highest total fantasy points of all WR’s, trailing only the top 5 QB’s and the two RB’s I just mentioned, in overall rankings. But the shocking thing is that it isn’t even close. He has nearly 30 more total points than #2 Wes Welker. He only has the 3rd most yards, but has 5 more TD’s than any other WR, and is 2nd in plays of over 40 yards. Megatron is a beast. Plain and simple. The Lions seem to be really pulling it together this year, and many of their players are hot fantasy commodities.

Best TE: The second biggest blow out is here at the tight end position. It seems to be a struggling position over all this season in all but 1 or 2 cases. Perennial powerhouse Antonio Gates only has about 25 points on the year. Generally strong Vernon Davis is outside the top 10. And only 4 TE’s in all have 60 or more total points. So much like Megatron leads the receivers, so does Jimmy Graham lead the TE’s. He leads in total fantasy points by about 20, leads receiving yards by 200, and is only second in TD’s (to a player he leads in yards by nearly 600).

Best Defense: Depending on which fantasy system you use, the Lions and Ravens defense flip flop as to which has the most fantasy points so far (ESPN likes Baltimore, and Yahoo! likes the Lions). So for my pick, I’m going to look at their divisions. I believe in looking at divisions when considering wide spanning stats like overall defense or offense. The Ravens have to play the Steelers and the surprisingly good Bengals twice each this season, whereas the only potent offense in the Lions division is the Packers. This means the Lions are generally in the better position to put up points against fewer powerhouse offenses. The truth of the matter is that defenses are scoring surprisingly well with 11 over the 60 point mark (on Yahoo!), as compared to only 4 TE’s. So make sure you keep everything in perspective while considering the value of different pieces within trades; generally speaking a good defense will set you up better than a good TE.

Lastly I want to include a section to help those out who aren’t exactly feeling like mid-season is any time to celebrate, and are getting killed by byes and injuries. These are the best value picks as I see them.

Best Value Picks at Each Position:

QB: Matt Hasselbeck. I believe I mentioned him a while back as having an extremely quiet, yet productive, season. He’s the 13th ranked QB on ESPN and is only owned in 55% of leagues, and only starting in 17%. His stock is extremely low for being statistically so high. There are plenty of big name QB’s who aren’t playing up to expectations this year (Rivers anybody?), and Hasselbeck is not only out scoring Rivers, he’s out averaging him, and has only 1 single digit game, to Rivers’ 2. Colt McCoy is another great example of the Hasselbeck situation, and has nearly identical numbers, but has much lower own/start percentages.

RB: The problem with RB’s is that the best are almost always owned. Therefore, the only value I can really comment on is those who are only being started in small numbers. There aren’t generally many great options you can pick up in free agency, but trades are still possible options. The best example of this is Darren Sproles of the Saints. While he is owned in 100% of leagues, he’s only starting in just under 70% of them. That is still a high number, but he might still be tradeable if you have excess value at another position. I generally shy away from having Saints players because of their extremely spread out offense. But with Mark Ingram out with injury, Sproles has one less guy to fight against for touches. Granted, he’s not my favorite back out there… but he has value that you might actually be able to get.

WR: My man for this category is one that I know I’ve talked about before, and that is AJ Green of the Bengals. For specific stats read this post, but also be aware that even though he’s owned at 100%, he’s only getting the start around 70% like Sproles. And with there being 3 Wide Receiver positions per team in most leagues… that tells me that 3 out of 10 people don’t even think he’s in their top 3 options. That screams trade value. Maybe sneak a trade with a big name TE, and see if you can get any bites.

TE: I’m going to have to be pretty liberal with how I define value here… but there has been one name that has been popping up in my stat checks tonight… and that is Scott Chandler, TE for Buffalo. Now, we know the big 3 in Buffalo are all producing out of their shoes (Fitzpatrick, Johnson, and Jackson), but don’t forget about this generally no-name TE. He’s ranking towards the top TE’s this season (which isn’t saying a whole lot), but he’s only owned at 28%. The problem with Chandler is consistency. He’s not a yards guy (barely over 100 on the year), but he seems to be a big red zone target. He actually leads all tight ends with 6 TD’s, but it’s extremely hit and miss. If he doesn’t find the end zone, then he doesn’t nearly get enough yards to make up for it… But if he does, then there’s a quick 6 points. If you’re really desperate, #1 remember that all TE’s are slacking this year, and #2 give Chandler a look. He’s basically a roll of the dice, but sometimes that’s the best you can ask for.

DEF: Just like the surprising AJ Green and Andy Dalton, you might be surprised to find out that the Bengals D is ranking 4th in fantasy points on ESPN. They’re 2nd in rush D, and 9th in pass D, both in yards allowed. And they’re again ranked 4th in points allowed per game. They are averaging about 12 fantasy points per game, but they have had a few stinkers against the likes of the Bills, the Orton-Broncos, and Browns, but I don’t think there’s a defense in the league that has been completely safe this season considering the way that offenses have been dominating the game.

Alright, well I guess that’s it for this brief awards article. I was going to try to get quirky with things… maybe stuff like “Most likely to double their score” or “Defense most likely to get the most picks on Brady” but… the Game of the Century is on, and I’m human. I’m also Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading Sports Stock.

Week 9: Wednesday Post

Wed, 02 Nov 2011 10:27:52 -0700

Hello readers, welcome to week nine. We can almost see the light at the end of the bye week tunnel… and I know that that means good things for all of us. But, since we’re not there yet, there is still work to be done. Changing your team to be effective during bye weeks is one of the biggest skills that a fantasy owner can have. Its nice to know that you should draft Calvin Johnson if he’s still on the board… but the real test, is what do you do when he’s on bye this week? So today, in honor of Megatron being on bye, I’m going to talk about the WR position, and specifically where you might be able to find some value that is selling low, or where stock is falling.

Lets begin with AJ Green. If you follow college football then chances are that you’ve heard of this former Georgia Bulldog before… but if not, he’s been having one of the quietest superstar seasons in the league. A lot was made during this past draft about who, between himself and Julio Jones of Alabama, would be the best WR to be taken. Cincinnati looked like it was going to be a dumpster fire of a team this year after getting rid of Ocho, TO, and Carson Palmer as well as generating serious questions about the validity of the ownership. But then something surprising happened. Andy Dalton did well. AJ Green did well. And now they might be the biggest sleeper in the NFL. All you have to do is look at the stats folks. Green has only dipped below double digits ONCE ALL SEASON, leading to him being the 6th ranked WR in football. So why am I bringing him up? There’s no way you’ll be able to get him right? Wrong. While Green is owned in nearly 100% of leagues… he’s only getting the start in 80% on Yahoo! and 66% on ESPN! That’s huge folks. You know what that tells me? He’s tradeable. Even the people who own him don’t realize how well he’s doing. He’s an autostart on virtually any line up… and you can get him for maybe a #2 running back. The word here is BUY!
To contrast this, one big name athlete whose stock is falling quickly is Dez Bryant. I remember watching on draft day a few years back when Dez was drafted to the Cowboys and thinking to myself, Man… that teaming up is going to be HUGE. At times it has been, and at others… not so much. The problem here is that Dez is a bit of an inconsistent WR, and Romo is a bit of an inconsistent QB. Now, if they’re clicking on the same day, then that means huge things for fantasy owners (proven by his double digit games against the Rams, Lions, and Jets). But the concern is that this isn’t always the case. Dez tends to loose steam in certain games, and Romo is slowly proving that he’s not necessarily as reliable as I had once thought… While there are good games to be had, especially considering Dallas’ soft schedule for much of the rest of the season… The inconsistency is something I have a hard time getting past. Yes he’s averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game (a stat that I usually love) but in this case it is a bit deceiving because that number comes from averaging the occasional 15 point game with the 2 and 6 point games. I say SELL for Dez Bryant. He still has enough name power to probably get you a decent trade… so go for consistency and fill those bye week gaps.
The last topic I want to cover is a bit of a interesting one, and it is so because it doesn’t necessarily apply to every fantasy owner out there. That is the issue of the WR that also serves as a kick returner. Now, not every fantasy league awards points for return yards/TD’s… and in those leagues guys like Antonio Brown of the Steelers, Josh Cribbs of the Browns, Devin Hester of the Bears, and Ted Ginn Jr. of the 49ers have very little fantasy value… BUT please be aware that you can take advantage of your league by knowing all the rules. And if your league is one of the ones where return work is rewarded with fantasy points, there is incredible value to explore while trying to fill in bye week gaps. Let me give you the numbers of the guys I’ve mentioned: Antonio Brown: 120 total fantasy points this season WITH return points (as well as only dipping below double digits once this season), 46 WITHOUT. Josh Cribbs: 94 WITH, 34 WITHOUT. Hester: 104 WITH, 47 WITHOUT. Ted Ginn Jr.: 95 WITH, 21 WITHOUT. So all I’m saying is that with this rule in place, some of these guys place themselves among the top echelon of WR’s in the NFL… but in order to take advantage of this, you have to be aware of the scoring rules of your league. There are tons of quirks out there that you should be aware of in order to maximize your fantasy potential. For example, be aware that QB’s score less points than RB’s or WR’s for yards and TD’s, so if someone tries to trade you a mediocre QB for a RB or WR, be aware that the points will be harder to come by. Another thing I’ve seen is that some leagues award bonus points for players that achieve certain in-game milestones (e.g. 1 bonus point for a QB reaching 300 passing yards, etc). Now these are generally done within friendly leagues where you all might know each other… but just keep an eye out for them because any advantage you might be able to gain over an opponent will better your chances for success.

In closing, I know today’s article was a little light on stats… (though always stocked with ideas!!!) but I guess it’s just one of those days. I’m still reeling from my Chargers loss. The great Colin Cowherd once said something to the effect of “You’re only a homer if it causes you to pick incorrectly.” And my last two Charger picks have been incorrect, and we have the Packers coming into town this week… and I’m not exactly sure what I’m going to do. Help me readers!

This has been Sports Stock Radio. I am, of course, Jake your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading.

Happy Halloween Readers!

Mon, 31 Oct 2011 10:23:22 -0700

How ‘bout football yesterday? Some surprising blow-outs, and even more surprising upsets! (Although I am claiming that my post from mid-game yesterday brought back the struggling Giants AND Ravens).

How’d I do?

I went 8-4 on my game picks (hopefully 9-4 after tonight). I got both of the close games wrong… I called New England over Pitt, and Dallas over the Eagles. I didn’t sniff out the Rams upset. And Cam only lost by a late game field goal. So overall this puts me at 71-44 for the season.
I was right on just about everything in the Pats/Steelers game except for the winner. Big Ben had a nice day (25pts on Yahoo!, 20 on ESPN), Steelers D was mediocre (6 points on Yahoo!, 8 on ESPN), and Brady’s numbers were brought down to a relatively pedestrian level (16 Yahoo!, 15 ESPN). But for some reason I still had faith that the Pats would find a way to pull out the win, I’ll know better from now on.
Kolb and Fitzgerald on the Cardinals both with for single digits (around 8-9 points each) this week against the Ravens, which is about what I expected.
Vick had a really nice game (20+), Romo barely scraped out double digits, LeSean McCoy had one of the best fantasy games of the week… however, the Dallas receivers might as well have not even played (only putting up 2 points each fantasy wise). I expected this game would be a bit of a shoot out, which is reflected in a few of the fantasy scores out there… but for the most part, it was all Eagles for the entire 60 minutes.
The Lions D flat lit up Timmy Terrific scoring 28 on ESPN, with 7 sacks and 2 TD’s. Their offense also did pretty well with Stafford scoring in the 20’s, and Megatron in the high-teens.
And finally… I’m officially calling it for Chris Johnson. 4 points against the Colts D? Really? I said earlier that this would be a very telling game. Either he would turn it on this week… or the season would be a bust. I’m Selling on Chris Johnson’s Season. But most of all I feel bad for the Titans paying over $50 million for a 30 yard per game RB. That must stink.

Alright, the last thing I want to get to is a quick Monday Night Preview, real life is calling with it being Halloween and all. I did pick the Chargers to win, but I have a slight feeling it might be a closer game than most are expecting. The Chargers had a really tough game against the Jets last week, failing to close it out once a lead was built. And they’re going to have to be very careful with that this week playing in one of the loudest stadiums in the country out at Arrowhead, especially on a holiday which will likely have the fans extra energized. I predict the Chargers getting a quick lead, but if the Chiefs look to start a comeback… beware of the fans playing a huge role in creating momentum. As far as fantasy is concerned, Philip Rivers is projected to get about 15, which I think sounds about right against the middle of the road Chiefs Pass D (ranked 18th in yards allowed, but T4th in TD’s given up). Reports are also saying that second string/goal line RB Mike Tolbert is likely going to be out with a combo hamstring/hand injury, so look for Ryan Mathews to have a better than usual game, and to bounce back after a poor showing against the Jets. As for the Chiefs, their skill players have always been a little sporadic for my taste, Bowe has had both a 1 and over 20 point game game this season, and Cassel has had a high 20’s game and a -3 effort. So, if they’re who you’re stuck with, then good luck to ya… Mark Sanchez has had a negative point game this season, and he managed to get 18 on the Chargers.

This has been Sports Stock Radio, and I am Jake your Fantasy Sports Broker… Thanks for reading, and make sure to have plenty of candy tonight. I know I will.

What is happening to the Ravens?

Sun, 30 Oct 2011 11:11:28 -0700

Saints aren’t looking great either…

Week 8: Sunday Quick-Tips

Sun, 30 Oct 2011 09:25:51 -0700

Game time is rapidly approaching… so let’s make sure we all have our line-ups in order, and here’s a recap of who I’m buying and selling.

Buy:

Ben Roethlisburger: Look for a huge game for him in his game against the Pats this week. The New England pass D is one of the worst in the league, and as you well know… Tom Brady is going to put up points, so Big Ben will likely be playing a catch-up game. That means big passing numbers and great fantasy value.
Lions D: After a week of taking heat in the media this week, look for the Lions D to have a statement game against the very sack-able Tim Tebow (6 against the Dolphins who have only had 7 for the entire rest of the season.)
Chris Johnson: If he’s ever going to break out of this funk he’s been in this season… it should be this week against the porous Colts run D. This is one of those games where I make my prediction, and wrong or not… I learn a lot about the player going forward. If CJ28 goes big today, look for him to gain some more confidence, and value moving forward. If not… this might be the last week where you can reasonably give him a shot. (*just heard this exact topic discussed on Fantasy Football Now* Go me! lol.)
Philadelphia/Dallas Skill players: Yep. I’m buying the lot of them. If you can get your hands on the likes of Vick, Romo, Dez, Miles Austin, McCoy, Jackson, any of them… do it, and give them the start this week. It’s a rivalry game and both offenses have been catching heat for a few weeks now. Look for a shoot-out in this one, with both sides trying to prove the validity of their offense.

Selling:

Pats O/ Pitt D: Like I’ve been saying, this should turn out to be a game where both sides take the other’s fantasy value down. I’m not saying Brady wont be Brady, but he might go for 15 instead of 20, or some variation of that. The Pitt D will probably get a couple sacks on him, and maybe a pick… but they’re going to give up points.
Arizona Offense: Look, I’ll be the first to admit that I though Kolb in AZ would have really made a drastic difference in the direction of the organization. He looked good in Philly, and I figured that giving him a weapon like Larry Fitzgerald would have put him over the top… But then real life happened. Kolb is sitting at 23rd of all fantasy QB’s, behind the likes of Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton. Beanie Wells isn’t having a terrible season, but it nursing a knee injury this week. And while Fitzgerald is the #12 WR, the #1 WR (Calvin Johnson) has TWICE as many points as him. Also, after their abysmal showing against the Jags last week, look for an extra motivated Raven’s D.
Peyton Hillis: First of all, he didn’t practice much if at all this week due to his hamstring injury… but he’s just been having a strange season. Remember that game where he didn’t play because of strep throat? And then it was assumed that he was being a bit of a dissenter due to contract battles. I personally hate that type of activity… and while Peyton took my fantasy teams last season all the way… I have to say that he has greatly cooled down from his explosive season last year.

Injuries:

I can’t possibly cover every single injury out there this week… but thankfully we have the diligence of ESPN’s Stephania Bell at our disposal. Read her injury blog here, and adjust your line-ups accordingly.

Alright, that’s it for this week’s Quick-Tips. I want to give a shout out to my heroes at Fantasy Football Now, seriously guys they’re one of the best resources out there for getting your line-ups in order last minute. ESPN2 from 830-10 (west coast), can’t beat it. This has been Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker. Thanks for reading, and lets have a good weekend.

First Ever Video Episode of Sports Stock Radio. =]

Sat, 29 Oct 2011 14:21:32 -0700

First Ever Video Episode of Sports Stock Radio. =]

While not necessarily fantasy relevant, here's still a pretty fun article about football.

Sat, 29 Oct 2011 07:58:40 -0700

While not necessarily fantasy relevant, here's still a pretty fun article about football.

Hey readers. Sorry I’ve been absent these last couple days… sometimes life happens. I...

Sat, 29 Oct 2011 07:32:00 -0700

Hey readers. Sorry I’ve been absent these last couple days… sometimes life happens. I was originally considering posting an article and a video today to make up for it… but just to ensure I don’t compromise the quality of either, I’m solely dedicated to making my first Sports Stock Video. Look for it sometime tonight, and don’t forget that there will also be a Sunday Quick Tips tomorrow before game time. Thanks!

Week 8: Wednesday

Wed, 26 Oct 2011 09:15:37 -0700

It’s Big Article Wednesday! Let’s do it.

Here’s who I’m BUYING and SELLING for the weekend ahead:

How about them Lions? Historically, they’ve been a terrible team for as long as most of us can remember… But what that means in football is that you get the chance to change your franchise by making some high picks in the draft. And listen to these first round picks: Calvin Johnson (2007), Matt Stafford and Brandon Pettigrew (2009), Ndomukong Suh and Jahvid Best (2010), and Nick Fairley (2011). Those are starters folks. And this year it seemed like it was all finally coming together. They had one of the hottest starts in football this season, and the Stafford-Johnson passing combo was generally unstoppable… but then, well, they got stopped. Calvin Johnson (AKA Megatron) went for over 20 fantasy points in 4 games of their 5-0 start, but hasn’t touched that number since. That said, Megatron is still in that elite group of cult fantasy superheroes… probably more so than in real NFL. In most leagues across the nation, he’s likely at that untradeable point, so there isn’t much that I can do for you guys at this moment in time. Calvin’s stock is high, and it should be. He has nearly an 18 point per week average, he’s ranking 3rd in receiving yards, 5th in receptions, 2nd in plays over 40 yards, and 1st in TD’s. If for some reason you have amazing value at back-up, then perhaps you can roll the dice in attempting a trade but don’t expect getting Megatron this late in the season, especially with a big week likely coming against Denver. The word is STAY for Megatron. If you have him, you know how valuable he is, and don’t you dare trade down. If you don’t have him… good luck. Now, how about the rest of the team?
ESPN reported Monday that Matt Stafford’s MRI came back clean in regards to his ankle injury. This means he should probably be on the field against the Denver Tebows. This is good if he’s able to play at a high level because Denver is allowing the 4th most passing TD’s in the league. They’re 18th in pass yards allowed, and T2nd in number of 40+ yard plays allowed. If Stafford is a go, there is no reason you shouldn’t start him… BUT, what are his prospects for the rest of the season? He’s got an 18+ fantasy point average, which is nice. He’s 6th in passing yards, T3rd in TD’s, and (in what is becoming my favorite stat) is T3rd in plays of 40+ yards. Yet, with all of that said… the Lions seem to have that feeling of trending downward. Like Megatron, his fantasy numbers have dipped since they’ve started losing, and he’s coming of his (statistically) worst game of the season against Atlanta who are nowhere near the league’s best pass D. Also keep in mind that due to their division, Stafford is going to have to face the Packers twice and the Bears once more before the season is out. The thing I love about Stafford though is that his value is LOW. He’s owned in nearly every league out there, but the interesting thing is that he’s only getting the start in 70-75% of those teams. That tells me he’s being used as a back-up when he could easily start for pretty much any team. The word is BUY for Stafford. At this point in the season, you know what your quarterback is. If you’re in the hot seat with a struggling Rivers as your starter, or a struggling Josh Freeman, a struggling Matt Ryan… try and pick up Stafford. He looks to be worth it.
I also wanted to briefly hit Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew. First for Best, get him out of your line-up. It looks like he’s still dealing with post-concussion symptoms. As a sufferer of a concussion myself, I can tell you that the road back is a tough one. Granted plenty of NFL guys start the week after, but reports say that Best is still day-to-day and the experts are predicting a warm spot on the bench for him. Even as the season moves on, Best is likely a low #1, high #2 RB. He’s averaging about 11.5 points per game, and is middle of the road in pretty much every important stat. He probably deserves the start on most teams, but I’m not jumping out of my shoes for anything he’s been doing. Again, think of the defenses in the Lions division and move forward accordingly. All-in-all he’s a nice back… get him out of your line-up this week, but its a small BUY for Best. As for Pettigrew, he’s a pretty nice player at a position that has been struggling this year in the league. There are only 3 TE’s hitting a double-digit average right now, and Pettigrew isn’t one of them. As far as total points go, Jimmy Graham is blowing the rest of the league away with over 100 on Yahoo!, but the reality is that most are somewhere in the 30-70 point range. Pettigrew is a nice start (50 total points so far, with a 6.3 average) at a league-wide struggling position. Again, a very small BUY here. There’s that one guy in every league that’s dominating at TE, but for the rest of us… We’ll just have to get by with the Pettigrew’s of the world.
As much as I want to move on to the Lions’ D… I think it’s time for a new topic. So, quiz time: Who in this league essentially missed the first 3 games of the season, and yet is still in the Top 10 in total points of his position? If you guessed Arian Foster, you’d be right. After starting the season with that debacle of tweeting a picture of his injured leg… those of us who drafted him anyway, are loving ourselves right now. Since legitimately starting in Week 4, he hasn’t dipped under double-digit points, including one 30 point game, and a 40 point masterpiece. Now I feel like after his injury, and a bit of a sub-par game against the Ravens (Hello… they’re the Ravens) a couple weeks ago, Foster might still be flying a bit under the radar. But let me tell you folks, he is RAPIDLY climbing the ladder of best RB’s in the league. A bit like how I talked about Cam Newton last week, the time is now to attempt a BUY on Foster. You might catch someone sleeping on him willing to trade to fill holes. Test the waters, see what it might take to get him, and evaluate your options. Also, I’m a big believer of looking ahead at a players remaining games… Aside from the surprising #5 Bengals, and #6 Falcons Run D, he faces teams ranked 19, 22, 24, 29, and 31st in the league in stopping the run. That’s huge guys… BUY!
And finally, the last topic I want to cover today is the highly anticipated Pittsburgh/ Patriots game coming this Sunday. This is looking to be the classic fantasy killer that you see once every few weeks: high powered defense vs. high powered offense. On TV this should make for a really good game, but watch out when it comes to fantasy. Of course Brady and the Patriots Offense are going to get points on the board, and the Pittsburgh D will probably get 2 or 3 sacks and maybe a Pick. But overall, the two sides are going to negate each other. Brady is probably going to go for 250 yards, 2 TD’s, and 1 INT… instead of his normal 350/3/0. Pittsburgh on the other hand will probably get those few big Defensive plays, but you know the Patriots are probably going to find some way to put at least 28 points on the board… and that’s worth a whopping -1 fantasy on both Yahoo! and ESPN. For another example of this, look at the Pats/Jets game from week 5. Brady still got his 300+ yards (which is what saved him in Fantasy) but only managed 1 TD, with 1 INT. On the other side of things, the Jets gave up about 500 total yards, and let 30 points up on the board. Both sides had down weeks. And that’s what I’m seeing here with New England v. Pittsburgh. So be a little more cautious than usual this week when looking at the generally auto-start Pats O and Pitt D.

Alrighty, that’s it for today folks. Stay tuned on Friday when I’ll be recapping the week’s biggest stories, and be on the look out Saturday for my inaugural Sports Stock Video. Thanks for reading. This is Jake, your Fantasy Sports Broker.

While it’s still October, I’d like to make a quick...

Tue, 25 Oct 2011 18:38:06 -0700

While it’s still October, I’d like to make a quick comment on the NFL’s Pink Breast Cancer Awareness Month. I know from witnessing it first-hand what cancer of any kind can do to a person’s life and well-being, and let me tell you that it is a horrible disease. There is no person on Earth who deserves to be plagued by this illness, and especially none who deserve to die from it. Cancer in all of its various forms has surely touched, in some way, everyone out there. I can personally say that it has touched my own family more than once. The statistics say that about 1 out of every 4 people are diagnosed with it, and generally speaking the prognosis is not good. It is for that reason that I am so proud of the NFL, as well as the MLB with Stand Up To Cancer, ESPN with the Jimmy V Foundation, and countless other organizations for making it their mission, or for using their celebrity, to fund research that will someday find a cure. If it is within your means, please buy an NFL Pink product, or donate to any of the many cancer supporting organizations out there because I know that every dollar makes a difference. Thank you and Stay Strong.

Not sure what all this means, but a lot of fancy number here. Take what you will.

Tue, 25 Oct 2011 14:33:06 -0700

Not sure what all this means, but a lot of fancy number here. Take what you will.